Championship strugglers Peterborough United and Barnsley meet in an early relegation six-pointer on Saturday afternoon.
The Posh are currently 22nd in the table and two points adrift of safety, while the Tykes are four points further behind in 23rd.
Match preview
© Reuters
Peterborough manager Darren Ferguson admitted that "something has to change" after seeing his team thumped 4-0 by Blackburn Rovers on Wednesday.
It was Posh's third successive defeat and meant they have taken just one point from their last five matches.
Nonetheless, thanks to Reading's points deduction, they know that they can move out of the bottom three if they win on Saturday and the Royals lose to Swansea City.
Twelve of Peterborough's 15 points this season have come at the Weston Homes Stadium, but they do have the Championship's worst defence having conceded 38 goals; that is five more than anyone else and an average of exactly two per game.
© Reuters
It will therefore be an interesting matchup against Barnsley, who are the lowest scorers in the division with just 13 goals to their name.
The Tykes are deep in trouble having lost 10 of their last 11 matches, but they hope that the appointment of Poya Asbaghi can help turn their fortunes around.
The former Sweden Under-21 boss took charge for the first time on Wednesday night but saw his new team concede twice late on to lose 2-0 to Swansea.
The South Yorkshire side are the only team in the Championship yet to win away from home this season and have suffered five consecutive defeats on the road.
This will be the two sides' first encounter in nearly three years, but Barnsley have won the last three meetings without conceding a goal.
- W
- L
- D
- L
- L
- L
- L
- L
- W
- L
- L
- L
Team News
© Reuters
Wednesday's heavy defeat could see Peterborough switch to a four-man defence, allowing Nathan Thompson to revert to right-back.
Darren Ferguson admitted that Oliver Norburn had been sick "five or six times" before the game against Blackburn in which he lasted an hour, but the midfielder should be fine for Saturday.
Joel Randall could be involved in the matchday squad for the first time since September after recovering from a thigh injury.
Poya Asbaghi went with a 4-3-3 formation for his first game in charge of Barnsley and should do so again, perhaps with a few personnel changes.
Claudio Gomes, Aaron Leya Iseka and Carlton Morris are all pushing for starts, with the latter two coming off the bench in midweek.
Centre-back pair Liam Kitching and Aapo Halme could be involved after returning to training this week after injuries.
Peterborough United possible starting lineup:
Cornell; Thompson, Beevers, Kent, Butler; Dembele, Taylor, Norburn, Burrows; Szmodics, Clarke-Harris
Barnsley possible starting lineup:
Collins; Brittain, Helik, Moon, J. Williams; Palmer, Gomes, Styles; Leya Iseka, Woodrow, Cole
We say: Peterborough United 1-1 Barnsley
This is a difficult game to call, least of all because both teams have struggled for wins this season. Peterborough need a reaction from Wednesday's thrashing but could go into their shell, while Asbaghi remains an unknown quantity at Barnsley and has not had much time to get his ideas across to the players. We are going for a draw.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Barnsley win with a probability of 37.53%. A win for Peterborough United had a probability of 35.11% and a draw had a probability of 27.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Barnsley win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.08%) and 0-2 (6.75%). The likeliest Peterborough United win was 1-0 (10.39%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.96%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
