Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nottingham Forest Under-23s win with a probability of 48.6%. A win for Aston Villa Under-23s had a probability of 29.19% and a draw had a probability of 22.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nottingham Forest Under-23s win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.7%) and 2-0 (6.39%). The likeliest Aston Villa Under-23s win was 1-2 (6.96%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.65%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Nottingham Forest Under-23s would win this match.
