Playoff contenders New York Red Bulls host an Inter Miami side currently struggling near the foot of the MLS Eastern Conference on Saturday, at the Red Bull Arena.
While the home side are unbeaten in three and sit seventh in the standings, their Floridian counterparts come into the game on the back of five successive defeats.
Match preview
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After previously scoring a late goal against Orlando to win their first away game of 2021, last week, the New York Red Bulls were held to a 1-1 home draw by fellow top-seven side Philadelphia Union.
The visitors' substitute striker Sergio Santos headed in an 85th minute equaliser for 10-man Union to deny the Red Bulls back-to-back wins in the league.
Head coach Gerhard Struber was left frustrated when Patryk Klimala's successful spot kick on the hour mark - after Union goalkeeper Matt Freese was sent off for hauling down Wikelman Carmona - was cancelled out so late on, but can still be pleased with his team's efforts in their opening 12 fixtures of the 2021 campaign.
Now in the final playoff position - with 17 points from that first dozen games - the 2018 Supporters' Shield-winners remain precariously placed, as the top end of the Eastern Conference is so finely balanced: second and ninth place are separated by just five points.
Though they missed out on a chance to make it five straight wins at Red Bull Arena last time, Struber's men have picked up at least a point in five of their last six matches and only need to add greater consistency to extend their campaign beyond the regular season.
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Yet to demonstrate any clear purpose or efficiency in the final third this season - they have failed to score six times in 11 outings - expansion club Inter Miami are 12th in the Eastern Conference table, as pressure grows on head coach Phil Neville to quickly find a winning formula.
Though they took a rare lead against Orlando City at the end of last month - having failed to trouble the scorers in their previous three games - the Herons conceded twice in the final 20 minutes to ultimately lose 2-1. Then, last time out, the Floridian outfit allowed CF Montreal to post their first win since May, at Red Bull Arena, where they return this weekend in hope of better fortune.
Miami called on star striker Gonzalo Higuain in a vain effort to turn things around in the second half against the Canadian side, before Neville threw on Rodolfo Pizarro late on; trying to force an equaliser. However, that failed to pay dividends too, as they still struggled to apply any significant pressure until the dying embers of another disappointing game.
It was a fifth successive defeat for Neville's shot-shy team, who have won just twice in the 2021 campaign - both away from home, against Philadelphia Union and FC Cincinnati.
They may, though, take some inspiration from the fact that both they and the Red Bulls recorded an away victory against each other last year, with Miami winning 2-1 in New Jersey last October - former Napoli forward Higuain scoring the winning goal in his first MLS match. A repeat performance this summer would be more than welcome for the currently lacklustre side.
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Team News
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Following his penalty last time out, New York Red Bulls frontman Patryk Klimala has now been involved in five of his team's last seven goals - scoring twice and assisting three times - so will start in the hosts' attacking pair, alongside on-loan striker Fabio.
Fellow forward Caden Clark and midfielder Youba Diarra are set to be unavailable for Saturday's game, though, while centre-back Aaron Long continues an extended stay on the sidelines as he recovers from an Achilles tendon rupture.
Hot prospect Clark will soon depart the Red Bulls for Bundesliga club RB Leipzig, but a recent appendectomy has ruled the teenager out of action for the rest of this month.
Inter Miami, on the other hand, have been busy making new additions to a confidence-sapped squad, with goalkeeper Nick Marsman, experienced English full-back Kieran Gibbs and Aston Villa youngster Indiana Vassilev all eligible to make their debuts this weekend.
Marsman has moved to MLS after a two-year stint with Dutch giants Feyenoord, while Gibbs has signed on in Florida following his four-year stay at West Bromwich Albion. USA Under-20 international Vassilev adds to Phil Neville's attacking options, having agreed a season-long loan from Villa.
Gonzalo Higuain's goal as a substitute against Orlando City was not enough to earn him a place in the starting lineup last time out, but his Argentine compatriot Julian Carranza has so far failed to fire and could be dropped. Despite his fading form and fitness, Higuain remains the only Miami player to hit the net more than once in MLS this term.
New York Red Bulls possible starting lineup:
Carlos; Tolkin, Nealis, Edwards, Duncan; Amaya, Davis, Harper, Casseres; Klimala, Fabio
Inter Miami possible starting lineup:
McCarthy; Leerdam, Figal, Gonzalez, Makoun; Matuidi, Gregore; Shea, Chapman, Morgan; Carranza
We say: New York Red Bulls 2-0 Inter Miami
Though Miami are overdue to end their desperate losing run, the Red Bulls are a tough team to beat on their home patch and are unlikely to be unpicked by the visitors' toothless attack.
Therefore, the home side should stride on towards the playoffs, with Miami returning south with nothing to show for their efforts once again.
Top tip
Jonathan O'Shea
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York Red Bulls win with a probability of 52.78%. A draw had a probability of 27.2% and a win for Inter Miami had a probability of 19.99%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York Red Bulls win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.42%) and 2-1 (8.65%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.19%), while for a Inter Miami win it was 0-1 (8.59%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 16.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for New York Red Bulls in this match.
