The New York Red Bulls have a chance to extend their winning run to four games in all competitions when they host the Portland Timbers on Saturday at Red Bull Arena.
Over the weekend, New York scored a pair of late goals to claim a 2-1 win against the Chicago Fire, while the Timbers failed to capitalise on their man-advantage in the Rockies, dropping a 2-0 decision to the Colorado Rapids.
Match preview
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They left it late, but, in the end, the Red Bulls got the job done and were full marks for their come from behind victory against Chicago.
New York are in a tight race for the top spot in the Eastern Conference of Major League Soccer thanks to some fine performances away from home, becoming the second team in league history to win their opening five road fixtures of a campaign.
Manager Gerhard Struber can have no complaints about how his players have performed on the road this season, although they have not looked as sharp on home soil.
The club from New Jersey ended the 2021 regular season unbeaten in its final seven games played at Red Bull Arena, posting a clean sheet in each of their last four home fixtures, but so far this season, it has been a different story as New York are winless at home, having failed to score in two of their four matches.
So far this year, it seems as though the less they touch the ball, the more effective they are, with fewer than 35% of the possession in four fixtures, winning each of those encounters and scoring 11 goals in the process.
New York have only suffered one defeat in their five previous home meetings against the defending Western Conference champions, failing to concede against them at home since 2014.
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After 10 matches, it is safe to say that the Timbers have not lived up to expectations, currently sitting in 10th in the Western Conference after narrowly losing the MLS Cup final last season on penalties to New York City FC.
Giovanni Savarese has been pleased with the work ethic of his players, but at the moment, they are not capitalising on their opportunities in front of goal, having now gone goalless in three successive domestic affairs.
Saturday was the second time this season in which the Timbers failed to take advantage when going up a man, as they tried to be a little too cute in the attack versus the Burgundy Boys.
Should they fail to find the back of the net for the fourth time this year, it would already match their entire total from 2021, including the playoffs.
Savarese has called on his players to take their game to another level, particularly on the road, where they have conceded multiple goals in three separate fixtures this season.
Even though 2022 has been underwhelming for them up to this point, there is an opportunity for the Timbers to make up some ground quickly, as two of their following three domestic affairs are against Western Conference opponents, with those two encounters being against sides who are currently below them in the table (San Jose Earthquakes and Sporting Kansas City).
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Team News
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A brace from Patryk Klimala last Saturday helped reverse the Red Bulls fortunes as he notched his second and third of the campaign, moving him one back of Lewis Morgan for the team lead, while Luquinhas has been involved in a goal for New York in each of their last three matches played in all competitions.
Andres Reyes is still out with a sore foot, Serge Ngoma has a pulled hamstring and Caden Clark continues to deal with a knee injury.
Goalkeeper Carlos Coronel has three clean sheets in 2022, though only one of those came at Red Bull Arena, when he faced just two shots on target in a 0-0 draw versus Dallas.
Claudio Bravo, who leads the league in interceptions with 29, missed the previous match for Portland due to yellow card accumulation, and Josecarlos Van Rankin will be suspended for this match after receiving a caution against the Rapids.
The Timbers continue to be without Felipe Mora following his knee surgery, and Diego Gutierrez is out with a foot injury.
George Fochive and Diego Chara have injured hips, while Sebastian Blanco continues to recover from a thigh issue.
Yimmi Chara and Aljaz Ivacic started for the 10th time this season and are the only players to feature in every match for Portland this year.
Cristhian Paredes led the Timbers in duels won against the Rapids (six), and Jaroslaw Niezgoda collected his 40th cap for the club in the regular season.
Before the MLS Primary Transfer Window came to an end, Portland made a move for an attacking threat, signing forward Nathan Fogaca from Brazilian side Coritiba for the rest of the season and with options on the following two campaigns.
New York Red Bulls possible starting lineup:
Coronel; Edwards, Nealis, Long; Morgan, Casseres, Amaya, Luquinhas; Barlow, Fernandez; Fletcher
Portland Timbers possible starting lineup:
Ivacic; Bravo, Tuiloma, Zuparic, Bonilla; Williamson, Paredes; Loria, Y. Chara, Asprilla; Niezgoda
We say: New York Red Bulls 2-1 Portland Timbers
The Timbers are not as bad as their record may indicate, but they always seem to allow one too many quality scoring opportunities in their own third of the field.
New York do not create a ton of chances in front of goal, but when they do, they have usually been able to make them count.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York Red Bulls win with a probability of 56.42%. A draw had a probability of 24.5% and a win for Portland Timbers had a probability of 19.07%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York Red Bulls win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.27%) and 2-1 (9.47%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.52%), while for a Portland Timbers win it was 0-1 (7.01%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.5% likelihood.
