If Jakub Mensik is to claim his maiden Masters 1000 crown, he must thwart Novak Djokovic's aspirations for a 100th title on the ATP Tour in Sunday's Miami Open final.
The teenage sensation outlasted Taylor Fritz 7-6(4), 4-6, 7-6(4) in Friday's late semi-final to set up a dream meeting with his idol, who clinically and unsurprisingly dispatched Grigor Dimitrov in straight sets to reach his 60th Masters final, putting him one win away from joining Jimmy Connors (109 titles) and Roger Federer (103) as centurions.
Match preview
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Fritz was expected to edge out Mensik in three tight sets for his maiden championship match in Miami, but the teenager upset the American No. 1 player, marking another top-10 victory in Florida.
Following his run to the quarter-finals in Shanghai last year, where he defeated Andrey Rublev and Dimitrov, the 19-year-old has joined the ranks of Rafael Nadal, Carlos Alcaraz and Holger Rune as the fourth teenager to achieve multiple victories over elite players in more than one ATP 1000 events.
Although his quest for a third win against that elite group was thwarted by his idol in China, Mensik, now the fifth teenager in the past two decades to reach a men's singles final at the Florida-based event — matching Nadal (2005), Djokovic (2007), Jannik Sinner (2021) and Alcaraz (2022) — strives for a different outcome, aiming to secure the most significant victory of his early career by defeating the man who inspired his love for tennis.
The big-serving 19-year-old gives little away on his deliveries — having dropped serve four times and conceded no break points in his round three victory over Roman Safiullin — and he is landing a high percentage of his first serves, averaging 85.2% of first-serve points won in Miami, which undoubtedly makes him a threat to Djokovic's bid for a historic title at the tournament.
Sunday's outcome will depend on the teenager, who fired 25 aces against Fritz, maintaining his high standards on serve as he seeks his first singles title.
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Facing an opponent 18 years his senior poses challenges, especially when that player is a dialled-in Djokovic.
Like Mensik, the Serbian star has also maintained high standards on serve at the second ATP 1000 event of 2025, conceding only seven break points on his way to an eighth championship match in Miami.
While the 37-year-old was broken once each by Camilo Ugo Carabelli, Lorenzo Musetti, Sebastian Korda and Dimitrov, the 99-time titlist has since raised his game to dispatch those opponents, achieving consecutive straight-set victories.
Having landed 83.1% of first serves against Musetti, Djokovic improved to 86.7% in Friday's semi-final success over Dimitrov, with Lionel Messi in attendance, bringing him closer to a 41st Masters title and his 100th overall.
By defeating his last-four opponent, the Serbian, at 37 years and 101 days, broke Federer's record (37 years and 222 days in the 2019 Miami event) to become the oldest finalist at 1000-level tournaments, potentially joining the retired Swiss icon and Connors in clinching 100 titles or more in the Open Era.
Djokovic entered Miami on a three-match losing streak, falling to Alexander Zverev at the Australian Open, Matteo Berrettini in Doha and Botic van de Zandschulp in Indian Wells, suggesting that a title was arguably a long shot despite Sinner's absence.
However, the sport's greatest player has silenced doubters with his focused execution, which has now placed him one victory away from another milestone at the venue of his first-ever Masters 1000 success.
Tournament so far
Jakub Mensik:
First round: vs. Roberto Bautista Agut 6-4 3-6 6-1
Second round: vs. Jack Draper 7-6[2] 7-6[3]
Third round: vs. Roman Safiullin 6-4 6-4
Round of 16: vs. Tomas Machac w/o
Quarter-final: vs. Arthur Fils 7-6[5] 6-1
Semi-final: vs. Taylor Fritz 7-6[4] 4-6 7-6[4]
Novak Djokovic:
First round: Bye
Second round: vs. Rinky Hijikata 6-0 7-6[1]
Third round: vs. Camilo Ugo Carabelli 6-1 7-6[1]
Round of 16: vs. Lorenzo Musetti 6-2 6-2
Quarter-final: vs. Sebastian Korda 6-3 7-6(6)
Semi-final: vs. Grigor Dimitrov 6-2 6-3
Head To Head
Shanghai Masters (2024) - Quarter-final: Djokovic 6-7(4) 6-1 6-4
Both men faced off for the first time in Shanghai last October, with Djokovic needing a comeback victory after losing the opening set tie-break.
Mensik has notched five consecutive shootouts in Miami, and the teenager will fancy his prospects against the Serbian star if the score stays level after 12 games.
The teenager from Czechia has already defeated three top-10 players on his way to Sunday's title match — Jack Draper and Fritz — and is one victory away from matching last year's total of four and securing an eighth win against the elite.
We say: Djokovic to win in three sets
While a Djokovic victory in straight sets would not be surprising, Mensik's skill at holding serve and outlasting opponents in tie-breaks could allow him to win a set against the 99-time ATP champion.
Nevertheless, the six-time champion's drive to secure his 100th tour-level title suggests he is likely to outlast the 19-year-old.
Undefeated in his last five Miami Open title matches since losing to Andy Murray in 2009, Djokovic, 18 years removed from his first Masters victory in Florida, should claim his seventh crown at the event and 41st ATP 1000 title, finally joining the esteemed duo of Connors and Federer as the latest centurion.
