A midweek thumping in Europe has left Roma reeling ahead of their trip to Stadio Luigi Ferraris on Sunday, where they meet a mid-table Sampdoria side with little left to play for.
While the Giallorossi's Europa League destruction at the hands of Manchester United was the latest in a string of setbacks for Paulo Fonseca's fast-fading team, Samp have been cruising along just inside the top half of the table and will have a stress-free run-in.
Match preview
© Reuters
Having suffered a humbling 6-2 defeat at Old Trafford on Thursday evening, Roma must somehow attempt a belated rescue of their domestic campaign, after a rotten run of just five points from their last five league games.
Finding themselves now just three points ahead of a Sassuolo side which sat distantly in the rearview mirror just a few weeks ago, even hopes of returning to any continental competition at all are in jeopardy, with previous Champions League aspirations lying dead in the water.
Italy's last side standing in Europe have hit a severe domestic downturn, which reached its nadir last Sunday as they crashed to a 3-2 defeat at struggling Cagliari - their second successive loss to a relegation-threatened outfit, following a 3-1 reverse against Torino.
Roma's chances of catching sixth-placed Lazio - who occupy the final guaranteed Europa League qualifying spot for next term - therefore seem to have evaporated, as with five games left to play they are six points adrift of their bitter rivals, who still hold a game in hand.
Now surely only a matter of weeks from making his exit, with a string of experienced contenders lining up to take his job, coach Paulo Fonseca has been unable to replicate positive performances at Stadio Olimpico when venturing outside the capital in 2021. Ahead of their trip to Genoa this weekend, the Giallorossi have won just one of their last eight Serie A matches on the road and have lost half of their away games in the campaign as a whole.
Not only that, but their defensive record has also continued to decline, as a succession of unforced errors at the back has undermined their possession-based style - with nearly three-quarters of the ball against Cagliari resulting in no points on the board.
They are unbeaten in their last five league encounters with this week's opponents Sampdoria, though, so will retain hope of at least extending an unbeaten run of seven Serie A games at Marassi, against both Genoese clubs.
© Reuters
With 42 points accrued in an inconsistent but often entertaining season so far, even one point from Sunday's late kickoff would be enough for Sampdoria to overtake their tally from the entirety of a tumultuous 2019-20 campaign.
Following back-to-back victories the previous week, Claudio Ranieri's team could not find a way past Sassuolo last time out, in a game where they were without leading scorer Fabio Quagliarella. The evergreen veteran, who has racked up 11 goals this term, at the age of 38 - and has scored in three of his last five appearances - should return this weekend to feature in the home side's ever-rotating forward line.
Former Roma boss Ranieri has insisted that his focus remains on securing Samp's stated target of 52 points by the season's end, as speculation grows about his future in the Ligurian side's dugout. His men have not enjoyed playing Roma and the other big guns of Calcio in recent times, though.
While capable of pulling off the odd surprise result, Sampdoria have nonetheless lost seven of their last eight home games versus teams in the established top seven - an elite to which Roma are currently still clinging - so adding three more points to the 10 required to meet Ranieri's mark may not prove a straightforward task - even if their visitors are apparently there for the taking.
- W
- D
- L
- W
- W
- L
- L
- D
- W
- L
- D
- L
- W
- D
- L
- D
- L
- L
Team News
© Reuters
Sampdoria's top scorer Fabio Quagliarella is expected to return from a thigh problem on Sunday, so may begin the game on the bench, while forward colleague Gaston Ramirez is also back in contention for the home side after recovering from a knee injury.
Back-up striker Ernesto Torregrossa has also returned to full training following a month out with a calf strain so could feature at some stage, but veteran winger Antonio Candreva is a doubt for the Blucerchiati due to an injured foot.
Midfielder Adrien Silva is expected to return to the Samp side, with young Mikkel Damsgaard possibly moving to the right flank, covering Candreva's probable absence.
Meanwhile, upon their return from the disastrous journey to Manchester, first-team regulars Jordan Veretout, Pau Lopez and Leonardo Spinazzola are set to be ruled out of action for Roma. Goalkeeper Lopez suffered a shoulder problem at Old Trafford and was replaced by Antonio Mirante, who should deputise again this weekend, while both Spinazzola and set-piece specialist Veretout fell victim to muscular injuries.
To add to Paulo Fonseca's woes, experienced forward Pedro is still nursing a thigh strain, while wing-back Riccardo Calafiori is struggling with a thigh problem of his own and Stephan El Shaarawy may also have to stay sidelined.
With both Spinazzola and Calafiori unavailable, Davide Santon may get a rare start on the left flank, while Carles Perez could come back into the lineup - with Lorenzo Pellegrini playing deeper in midfield to cover Veretout.
Sampdoria possible starting lineup:
Audero; Bereszynski, Yoshida, Colley, Augello; Damsgaard, Thorsby, Ekdal, Jankto; Balde, Gabbiadini
Roma possible starting lineup:
Mirante; Mancini, Fazio, Kumbulla; Santon, Pellegrini, Diawara, Peres; Mkhitaryan, Perez; Mayoral
We say: Sampdoria 1-1 Roma
Roma have just a handful of games left to salvage something from the ashes of their season after losing four of their last seven matches, so even a point away to a tricky Sampdoria side would be a welcome tonic at this stage.
Apparently incapable of keeping a clean sheet in recent weeks, the Giallorossi can perhaps take advantage of Samp's possible lack of urgency, given they only have a top-half finish to defend in the final rounds of the season.
Top tip
Jonathan O'Shea
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Roma win with a probability of 47.55%. A win for Sampdoria had a probability of 29.33% and a draw had a probability of 23.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Roma win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.7%) and 0-2 (6.87%). The likeliest Sampdoria win was 2-1 (7.11%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.46%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 4% likelihood.
