Turkish Super Lig | Gameweek 13
Nov 21, 2021 at 10.30am UK
Recep Tayyip Erdogan Stadium
Kasimpasa1 - 3Karagumruk
Struggling Kasimpasa host an out-of-form Fatih Karagumruk side in an Istanbul derby in the Turkish Super Lig on Sunday.
The Apaches are 18th in the table and three points adrift of safety, while their visitors are eighth and two points behind a European spot.
Match preview
It is only November but Kasimpasa are already on their third manager of the season, with Hakan Kutlu replacing Cihat Arslan last month. Kutlu, who was in charge of relegated Denizlispor for three months last season, is tasked with preserving the top-flight status of a side who have been in the Super Lig since 2012. The 49-year-old beat Yeni Malatyaspor 2-0 in his first game in charge, before heading into the international break with a 2-0 defeat to Gaziantep. Kasimpasa have recorded just two wins from 12 league games this season and have lost seven of their last nine, but eight of their nine points have come on home turf. The Apaches won 3-2 in their last encounter against Fatih Karagumruk in February, with Yusuf Erdogan netting twice. Whereas the Kasimpasa managerial hotseat is very volatile, Karagumruk appear to have an exciting project under 32-year-old Francesco Farioli. The Italian has transformed the Istanbul outfit into an attractive, possession-based side that looks set to challenge for a spot in Europe this season. However, Karagumruk went into the international break on their worst run of form of the campaign and have taken just two points from their last three games. They conceded an 88th-minute equaliser in a 1-1 draw against Galatasaray a fortnight ago, when a win would have taken them into the top four. Farioli will be eager to return to winning ways against their city rivals, as they host league leaders Trabzonspor next weekend.Kasimpasa Turkish Super Lig form:
- D
- L
- L
- L
- W
- L
Fatih Karagumruk Turkish Super Lig form:
- L
- W
- W
- D
- L
- D
Team News
Kasimpasa will be without Valentin Eysseric, who is suspended following his red card against Gaziantep before the international break. Midfielder Loret Sadiku was forced off injured in the second half of that game, meaning that he is a doubt for this fixture. Top scorer Umut Bozok, on loan from French side Lorient, has netted twice in his last three matches. Fatih Karagumruk's Jimmy Durmaz picked up his fourth yellow card of the campaign against Galatasaray, meaning he is suspended, but Derrick Luckassen returns from his ban. Burak Bekaroglu, Yann Karamoh and Medhi Benatia all suffered injuries in that fixture so are expected to miss out. No player has scored more goals in the Super Lig this season than midfielder Andrea Bertolacci (seven), who has already recorded his best tally for a single campaign. Kasimpasa possible starting lineup: Tekin; Yildirim, Donk, Bruma, Elmali; Travnik, Serbest; Erdogan, Hajradinovic, Engin; Bozok Fatih Karagumruk possible starting lineup: Viviano; Hedenstad, Luckassen, Zukanovic, Erkin; Bertolacci, Biglia; Musa, Mor, Borini; PesicWe said: Kasimpasa 1-1 Fatih Karagumruk
Hakan Kutlu will have been grateful for the two-week break that will have enabled him to implement his ideas at Kasimpasa and he will be eager to get a result at home against a Karagumruk side going through a rough patch. We can see this one ending level. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Kasimpasa win with a probability of 40.25%. A win for Fatih Karagumruk had a probability of 33.4% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Kasimpasa win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.58%) and 2-0 (7.01%). The likeliest Fatih Karagumruk win was 0-1 (9.14%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.52%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Kasimpasa | Draw | Fatih Karagumruk |
| 40.25% | 26.34% | 33.4% |
| Both teams to score 52.66% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
