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Udinese logo
Serie A | Gameweek 30
Jul 5, 2020 at 6.30pm UK
Dacia Arena
Genoa logo

Udinese
2 - 2
Genoa

Fofana (44'), Lasagna (73')
Sema (10'), Stryger Larsen (25'), Fofana (82')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Pandev (81'), Pinamonti (90+7')
Goldaniga (42'), Sturaro (63')

Preview: Udinese vs. Genoa - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Serie A fixture between Udinese and Genoa, including team news and predicted lineups.

Udinese play host to relegation rivals Genoa on Sunday afternoon looking to build on their victory over Roma earlier this week.

Meanwhile, Genoa make the trip to Stadium Friuli sitting in 17th position in the Serie A standings, five points adrift of their opponents.


Match preview

Genoa celebrate a goal against AC Milan in Serie A in March 2020© Reuters

Having gone nine games without a win in Serie A, Udinese boss Luca Gotti would have been starting to feel concerned about become embroiled in a relegation zone heading into the final quarter of the season.

While that is likely to remain the case, Thursday's excellent 2-0 victory away at Roma has created some breathing space between themselves and the relegation zone.

Goals from Kevin Lasagna and Ilija Nestorovski have moved Udinese up to 13th spot, six points above the drop zone, and Gotti will acknowledge that there is an opportunity to strengthen their position against their out-of-form opponents this weekend.

Gotti will feel that the long-awaited victory had been coming after performing so well against Atalanta BC last weekend, eventually succumbing to a 3-2 defeat against the fourth-placed team.

Nevertheless, only points will do at this stage of the season, and another maximum return on Sunday afternoon will put I Bianconeri on the brink of survival.

From Genoa's perspective, boss Davide Nicola must find a way to end a three-match winless streak which has been put together since the resumption.

Although his side gave a respectable account of themselves during their 3-1 defeat to Juventus, the result followed disappointing efforts against Parma and Brescia.

On a positive note, Il Grifone have a more favourable schedule than some of their rivals, with their home meetings with Inter Milan and Napoli representing their only games against top-six opposition.

However, despite having games against lower-end foes in the coming weeks, Nicola must first solve his issues at the back having witnessed Genoa concede nine goals in their last three matches.

Udinese Serie A form: DDDLLW

Genoa Serie A form: WLWLDL


Team News

Lasse Schone in action for Genoa in February 2020.© Reuters

Udinese boss Gotti is expected to retain the same team which began the match in midweek.

That would see Stefano Okaka keep his place in attack, despite having only netted once in his last 10 appearances.

Genoa will be without midfielder Lasse Schone, who is serving a one-match suspension for five yellow cards.

Lukas Lerager could come back into the starting lineup, while Antonio Sanabria is also pushing for a recall to the team.

Udinese possible starting lineup:
Musso; Maio, Troost-Ekong, Nuytinck; Larsen, De Paul, Walace, Fofana, Sema; Lasagna, Okaka

Genoa possible starting lineup:
Perin; Romero, Soumaoro, Masiello; Biraschi, Lerager, Behrami, Sturaro, Barreca; Sanabria, Pinamonti


Sports Mole Logo

We say: Udinese 1-1 Genoa

While both teams know how crucial a win could prove come the end of the season, they are also aware that avoiding defeat is equally important. With that in mind, we are backing the sides to play out a low-scoring draw this weekend.



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Udinese win with a probability of 41.04%. A win for Genoa had a probability of 32.86% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Udinese win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.7%) and 2-0 (7.09%). The likeliest Genoa win was 0-1 (8.85%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.4%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.3% likelihood.


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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Napoli118121881025
2Inter Milan1173125131224
3Atalanta BCAtalanta1171329141522
4Fiorentina116412291322
5Lazio1171324141022
6Juventus115601971221
7AC Milan105231711617
8Udinese115151416-216
9Bologna103611211115
10Torino114251516-114
11Empoli1135389-114
12Roma113441214-213
13Hellas VeronaHellas Verona114071624-812
14CagliariCagliari11236919-109
15Genoa11236821-139
16Como112361222-109
17Parma111641417-39
18Monza111551014-48
19VeneziaVenezia112271019-98
20Lecce11227420-168


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