Lecce have two matches remaining to save themselves from the Serie A drop, starting with Wednesday evening's trip to rejuvenated Udinese.
The Giallorossi are four points adrift of safety with two games to go, while Udinese have put their relegation concerns behind them with back-to-back wins.
Match preview
Lecce's survival hopes took another battering on Sunday when a 93rd-minute goal from Musa Barrow consigned them to a 3-2 loss away at Bologna.
That loss was all the more difficult to take given that they had recovered from two goals down inside the opening five minutes, with Marco Mancosu and Filippo Falco levelling up.
Fabio Liverani's men now need two wins to overtake Genoa and avoid an instant return to the second tier, with their relegation rivals boasting the better head-to-head record.
Not only do Lecce need to end a six-match winless run on their travels - five of those ending in defeat - but they also need Genoa to lose or draw against Sassuolo on Wednesday.
That will then set up a tense final day showdown as Lecce host mid-table Parma and Genoa - the only team Liverani's side can catch - hosting Hellas Verona.
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Unsurprisingly, only the bottom two have lost more games than the Giallorossi this season and no team has conceded more than the 80 they have let in.
Udinese are hardly the best team in front of goal - only relegated pair Brescia and SPAL have scored fewer - but they have at least found a way to grind out victories.
The Bianconeri were hovering close to the bottom three after losing 2-1 to Napoli on July 19, but they pulled off a stunning 2-1 win over Juventus and then saw off Cagliari 1-0.
Stefano Okaka's early goal was enough to earn Udinese the victory in that most recent outing, which moves them 10 points clear of the dropzone and means that they can now relax.
Luca Gotti's men are positioned 13th in the table and, with games against Lecce and Sassuolo to conclude the season, a top-half finish will now likely be the target.
Udinese's Serie A form: WLDLWW
Lecce's Serie A form: WDLLWL
Team News
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Lukasz Teodorczyk, Mato Jajalo, Rolando Mandragora and Sebastian Prodl are all sidelined for Udinese, each carrying a knee injury.
After picking up another yellow card at the weekend, Jens Stryger Larsen will serve an automatic one-match suspension on Wednesday.
Kevin Lasagna returned to the starting lineup last time out and should retain his spot for this one, while Hidde ter Avest is pushing for inclusion in Larsen's absence.
As for Lecce, they have been without midfielder Alessandro Deiola for their last four matches and that is expected to remain the case for this trip to the Dacia Arena.
Jacopo Petriccione returned as a second-half substitute in the loss to Bologna and is pushing for a start here.
Elsewhere, Cristian Dell'Orco was brought into the side in place of Andrea Rispoli at the weekend out but that may change against Udinese.
Udinese possible starting lineup:
Musso; Becao, Troost-Ekong, Nuytinck; Avest, De Paul, Walace, Sema, Zeegelaar; Lasagne, Okaka
Lecce possible starting lineup:
Gabriel; Donati, Lucioni, Paz, Dell'Orco; Mancosu, Tachtsidis, Barak; Falco, Saponara; Lapadula
We say: Udinese 1-0 Lecce
Udinese turned a corner with their win over Juventus and can now look up the table rather than down at the relegation zone. Lecce need three points from this match but have won just two away games since September, so we can see their fate being confirmed in midweek.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Udinese win with a probability of 46%. A win for Lecce had a probability of 28.94% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Udinese win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.27%) and 2-0 (7.82%). The likeliest Lecce win was 0-1 (7.61%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.87%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7% likelihood.
