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Watford logo
Championship | Gameweek 44
Apr 24, 2021 at 3pm UK
Vicarage Road
Millwall logo

Watford
1 - 0
Millwall

Sarr (11' pen.)
FT(HT: 1-0)

Muller (86')

Preview: Watford vs. Millwall - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Championship clash between Watford and Millwall, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Watford can clinch promotion back to the Premier League this weekend should they beat out-of-form Millwall at Vicarage Road.

The Hornets need just three more points to guarantee a top-two finish, while Millwall are now jostling for position in the top half.


Match preview

Watford's Dan Gosling scores their first goal against Norwich City in the Championship on April 20, 2021© Reuters

A 1-0 loss to local rivals Luton Town last week appeared to open the door for the chasing pack to make up some ground on Watford, but that has not proved to be the case.

While others around them continue to stumble, the Hornets returned to winning ways with a 1-0 win at already-promoted Norwich City on Tuesday evening.

Dan Gosling converted a low Joao Pedro cross with just under an hour played at Carrow Road to finally beat Tim Krul, who produced a handful of good saves.

That win moves Watford to within five points of top spot, but the more immediate priority for Xisco's side is to seal a top-two finish, which they can achieve on Saturday.

Watford know that a ninth win in 11 league games will be enough to make certain of a return to the Premier League at the first time of asking.

Bournemouth's Arnaut Danjuma scores against Millwall in the Championship on April 21, 2021© Reuters

There is also the possibility of the Hornets going up with a draw, but they need Bournemouth and Brentford to draw in the early kickoff for that to happen.

However, a defeat for Watford could yet make things interesting as they face Brentford and Swansea City - two of the three sides directly below them - in their final two games.

Still, this is a match Xisco's men will be confident of winning, having taken all three points from their last seven Championship home games - their best run since 1977.

Millwall have gone off the boil in recent weeks, too, taking just one point from the last nine on offer.

The Lions have had a tough run, losing 3-0 to Swansea City and 4-1 to Bournemouth, either side of a stalemate against another promotion-chasing side in Brentford.

Gary Rowett's side are now aiming to avoid back-to-back losses for the first time this calendar year, though eighth place is now ultimately the best that they can hope for.

Millwall are winless in five away league matches against Watford (D1 L4) in a run stretching back to a 2-0 win back in March 2006, with goals from Carl Asaba and Ben May.

Watford Championship form:
  • W
  • W
  • D
  • W
  • L
  • W

Millwall Championship form:
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • L
  • D
  • L



Team News

Watford's Andre Gray celebrates scoring against Wycombe Wanderers in the Championship on March 3, 2021© Reuters

Xisco freshened up his side between the loss to Luton and win over Norwich and that paid off as Watford picked up arguably their best win yet.

Kiko Femenia missed out at Carrow Road through suspension but is now back in contention, leaving captain Troy Deeney as the hosts' only known injury concern.

Andre Gray is a contender to come into the front three, while Nathaniel Chalobah is another who will be hoping for a recall against Millwall.

As for the Lions, Rowett brought in Billy Mitchell - fresh on the back of signing a new deal - and Kenneth Zohore for the heavy loss to Bournemouth.

Murray Wallace and Mason Bennett remain fitness doubts, while Alex Pearce was substituted at half time in that heavy loss and will likely miss out on a starting spot here.

Jed Wallace scored Millwall's consolation in midweek to make it 10 goals for the campaign, which should see him retain his spot up top.

Watford possible starting lineup:
Bachmann; Femenia, Sierralta, Troost-Ekong, Masina; Zinckernagel, Hughes, Chalobah; Sarr, Pedro, Sema

Millwall possible starting lineup:
Bialkowski; Evans, Pearce, Cooper; McNamara, Kieftenbeld, Woods, Mitchell, Malone; Wallace, Bradshaw


SM words green background

We say: Watford 2-0 Millwall

Watford will know ahead of kickoff exactly what is required to earn promotion - one point or all three.

Either way, this is a game that we expect the Hornets to win against a Millwall side with little left to play for, which is reflected in their recent results.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting under 3.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Under 3.5:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Watford win with a probability of 55.33%. A draw had a probability of 26.1% and a win for Millwall had a probability of 18.53%.

The most likely scoreline for a Watford win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.92%) and 2-1 (8.89%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.82%), while for a Millwall win it was 0-1 (7.87%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 15.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Watford in this match.


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Game History

How you voted: Watford vs Millwall

Watford
82.0%
Draw
11.2%
Millwall
6.7%
89
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Millwall manager Gary Rowett pictured in February 2021
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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Sunderland1594225111431
2Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd1510321971231
3Leeds UnitedLeeds158522491529
4Burnley157621861227
5West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom15672169725
6Watford158162322125
7Middlesbrough157352317624
8Millwall156541813523
9Blackburn RoversBlackburn156451917222
10Bristol City155732019122
11Swansea CitySwansea155461110119
12Derby CountyDerby155461919019
13Stoke CityStoke155461819-119
14Norwich CityNorwich154652322118
15Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds155371725-818
16Oxford UnitedOxford Utd154561718-117
17Coventry CityCoventry154472021-116
18Plymouth ArgylePlymouth154471526-1116
19Hull City153661620-415
20Preston North EndPreston153661523-815
21Luton TownLuton154381726-915
22Cardiff CityCardiff154381423-915
23Portsmouth152671628-1212
24Queens Park RangersQPR151771225-1310


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