Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Germany win with a probability of 61.07%. A draw had a probability of 20.6% and a win for Iceland had a probability of 18.37%.
The most likely scoreline for a Germany win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.42%) and 0-1 (9.04%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.53%), while for a Iceland win it was 2-1 (5.02%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 3.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Germany would win this match.