Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Russia win with a probability of 58.03%. A draw had a probability of 23.1% and a win for Malta had a probability of 18.83%.
The most likely scoreline for a Russia win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.84%) and 2-1 (9.77%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11%), while for a Malta win it was 0-1 (6.19%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 10.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Russia would win this match.