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Asian Cup
Japan national football team
Asian Cup | Group Stage
Jan 14, 2024 at 11.30am UK
Al Thumama Stadium
Vietnam national football team

Japan
4 - 2
Vietnam

Minamino (11', 45'), Nakamura (45+4'), Ueda (85')
Sugawara (32')
FT(HT: 3-2)
Bac Nguyen (16'), Hai Pham (33')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Asian Cup clash between Japan and Vietnam, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Japan

All competitions
Last Game: Japan 6-1 Jordan
Tuesday, January 9 at 11.30am in International Friendlies

Vietnam

All competitions
Last Game: Kyrgyzstan 2-1 Vietnam
Tuesday, January 9 at 1pm in International Friendlies

We said: Japan 3-0 Vietnam

 Japan will get their Asian Cup campaign started carrying excellent form and boasting a star-studded roster that would likely pose a challenge to any team in world football. While everyone loves a nail-biting opening round fixture, we feel that this will not be one of those and expect the Samurai Blue to cruise to victory in this one. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Japan win with a probability of 71.49%. A draw had a probability of 17.3% and a win for Vietnam had a probability of 11.25%.

The most likely scoreline for a Japan win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.17%) and 2-1 (9.51%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.18%), while for a Vietnam win it was 0-1 (3.52%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Japan would win this match.

Result
JapanDrawVietnam
71.49% (0.025999999999996 0.03) 17.27% (0.010000000000002 0.01) 11.25% (-0.035 -0.04)
Both teams to score 49.83% (-0.15199999999999 -0.15)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
60.51% (-0.14 -0.14)39.49% (0.14 0.14)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
38.17% (-0.148 -0.15)61.83% (0.149 0.15)
Japan Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
90.23% (-0.030000000000001 -0.03)9.77% (0.031000000000001 0.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
67.5% (-0.072999999999993 -0.07)32.5% (0.070999999999998 0.07)
Vietnam Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
55.23% (-0.151 -0.15)44.77% (0.151 0.15)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
19.25% (-0.122 -0.12)80.75% (0.122 0.12)
Score Analysis
    Japan 71.48%
    Vietnam 11.25%
    Draw 17.27%
JapanDrawVietnam
2-0 @ 11.83% (0.050000000000001 0.05)
1-0 @ 10.17% (0.050000000000001 0.05)
2-1 @ 9.51% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
3-0 @ 9.17% (0.023000000000001 0.02)
3-1 @ 7.37% (-0.012 -0.01)
4-0 @ 5.33% (0.0049999999999999 0)
4-1 @ 4.29% (-0.014 -0.01)
3-2 @ 2.96% (-0.017 -0.02)
5-0 @ 2.48% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
5-1 @ 1.99% (-0.0089999999999997 -0.01)
4-2 @ 1.72% (-0.013 -0.01)
6-0 @ 0.96% (-0.002 -0)
Other @ 3.7%
Total : 71.48%
1-1 @ 8.18% (0.0079999999999991 0.01)
0-0 @ 4.38% (0.029 0.03)
2-2 @ 3.82% (-0.018 -0.02)
Other @ 0.89%
Total : 17.27%
0-1 @ 3.52% (0.008 0.01)
1-2 @ 3.29% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
0-2 @ 1.41% (-0.002 -0)
2-3 @ 1.02% (-0.0090000000000001 -0.01)
Other @ 2.01%
Total : 11.25%

How you voted: Japan vs Vietnam

Japan
78.6%
Draw
7.1%
Vietnam
14.3%
42
Head to Head
Mar 29, 2022 11.35am
Third Round
Japan
1-1
Vietnam
Yoshida (55')
Shibasaki (49')
Binh Nguyen (19')
Chinh Ha (90+2')
> Preview
Nov 11, 2021 12pm
Third Round
Vietnam
0-1
Japan

Anh Nguyen (8')
Ito (17')
Morita (85')
> Preview
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