Real Salt Lake find themselves outside of a playoff spot in the Western Conference heading into a critical match on Wednesday with Dallas at Toyota Stadium in the lone star state.
RSL dropped their third straight road contest, 1-0, to the Chicago Fire, while the Toros could not hold onto their two-goal advantage, drawing the Los Angeles Galaxy 2-2.
Match preview
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Dallas let a strong start go to waste for a second consecutive game, earning a draw in what had to have felt more like a loss for them in LA.
The 2021 campaign has been tough going for the Toros, who will miss the postseason for the first time since 2017.
The 3-4-2-1 formation employed early on by former manager Luchi Gonzalez was a perplexing one that did not seem to suit this attack-minded side, capturing only one victory in their opening nine fixtures before eventually reverting to a more traditional 4-3-3 lineup for a while but never really finding the results that they needed.
Their style of play to work methodically from the back has seen them create plenty of opportunities as they sit in the top third in the league in terms of possession, chances and chances created.
All that is well and good if you have the quality up front that can finish off those chances, and besides Ricardo Pepi, their attacking prowess has been virtually invisible.
Under interim boss Marco Ferruzzi, you certainly cannot fault their effort or desire to attack, with eight shots on target versus the Galaxy, but try as they might, it is rarely good enough, as they are now winless in nine consecutive encounters heading into this game.
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Salt Lake suffered a blow to their postseason aspirations, struggling to get into their game against Chicago, conceding late in the first half.
Despite a much stronger second half, Claret and Cobalt were stymied at every turn by some solid goalkeeping from Gabriel Slonina, who made some fine saves to keep RSL at bay while maintaining his team's narrow advantage.
Salt Lake seemed to abandon their direct style throughout the match, a style that worked so effectively at home versus the Colorado Rapids, but on Saturday they failed to get into as many dangerous areas and as a result came away without a point.
Since taking over from Freddy Juarez, Pablo Mastroeni has emphasized the importance that his team maintain the right mentality and state of mind, and that will now be put to the test as they have four games remaining to try and get back into a top seven position in the Western Conference.
The silver lining for this team is that although they are currently outside of a playoff position, trailing the Vancouver Whitecaps by two points, their destiny is in their own hands, meaning that if they can win their final four regular-season affairs, they will qualify for the postseason.
While their two fixtures coming up this week are undoubtedly winnable games on paper, they will have to ensure that they play without fear against a pair of sides (Dallas and the San Jose Earthquakes), who will not have as much pressure on them, with the Toros out of the playoff conversation and the Quakes with an outside shot at a postseason berth.
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Team News
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Jimmy Maurer got the start in goal for Dallas over the weekend, replacing the suspended Phelipe Megiolaro, while Ema Twumasi will be ineligible for this match after receiving another caution versus the Galaxy.
Johnny Nelson is out with a back injury, Beni Redzic is still nursing an ankle issue and Facundo Quignon will probably be out of the lineup for this one with a thigh problem.
Jesus Ferreira collected his seventh strike of the season, as he is third on the team in scoring, with one more goal than Franco Jara, who notched his sixth of the campaign and also picked up his second assist of the year.
Salt Lake are still without Zack Farnsworth and Marcelo Silva with undisclosed injuries, as Mastroeni had five RSL Academy products in the starting 11 on Saturday, plus another six on the 20-man roster.
David Ochoa kept his team in their game against Chicago with eight saves, but he has been under siege on the road, conceding nine goals in his last three matches away from home.
Damir Kreilach saw his five-game scoring streak snapped on Saturday and Bobby Wood played for the first time since August 18, replacing Pablo Ruiz late in the match.
Dallas possible starting lineup:
Maurer; Hollingshead, Bressan, Hedges, Che; Cerrillo, Pomykal, Obrian; Ferreira, Pepi, Jara
Real Salt Lake possible starting lineup:
Ochoa; Glad, Holt, Herrera; Meram, Besler, Luiz, Brody; Rusnak; Kreilach, Rubin
We say: Dallas 1-2 Real Salt Lake
Since September, RSL have been relatively consistent, following up the majority of their defeats with victories but never being able to put together extended runs, so look for them to play with a lot more desperation against a side with a lot of holes in their backline and missing one of their regular wing backs in Twumasi.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Dallas win with a probability of 55.02%. A win for Real Salt Lake had a probability of 23.07% and a draw had a probability of 21.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Dallas win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.37%) and 2-0 (8.18%). The likeliest Real Salt Lake win was 1-2 (5.99%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6% likelihood.
