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UEFA Conference League
Lugano
Conference League | League Stage
Dec 19, 2024 at 8pm UK
Stockhorn Arena

Lugano
2 - 2
Pafos

Mahmoud (7'), Bottani (33')
Bottani (45+1'), Bislimi (70'), Grgic (90+4'), Mahmoud (90+1'), Przybylko (90+6')
FT(HT: 2-1)
Saipi (5' og.), Goldar (90+5')
Tankovic (26'), Correia (29'), Luckassen (74'), Quina (90+6')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Conference League clash between Lugano and Pafos FC, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Lugano

All competitions
Conference League
Last Game: Lugano 1-4 Lausanne
Sunday, December 15 at 3.30pm in Swiss Super League

Pafos FC

All competitions
Last Game: Pafos 2-0 Celje
Thursday, December 12 at 8pm in Conference League
TeamGoals scoredAvg per gameTop scorer
1Basel402.22Traore
2Luzern331.83Klidje
3Lausanne311.72Sanches
4Lugano301.67Steffen
5Servette291.61Kutesa
6St Gallen291.61Akolo
7Sion251.39Chouaref
8Young Boys251.39Ganvoula
9FC Zurich241.33Jose Perea
10Grasshopper170.94Morandi
11Winterthur160.89Di Giusto
12Yverdon Sport160.89Cespedes

We said: Lugano 3-2 Pafos FC

 Neither team can afford to be cautious with both needing a result, and the potential to move into second place should encourage Lugano to go for the three points here. Pafos must win if they want to break into the top eight, but poor away form on the continent suggests they may come up just short here, even though a knockout spot is already secured. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lugano win with a probability of 40.89%. A win for Pafos FC had a probability of 34.78% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Lugano win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.92%) and 2-0 (6.17%). The likeliest Pafos FC win was 1-2 (7.99%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.25%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood.

Result
LuganoDrawPafos FC
40.89% (-0.045999999999999 -0.05) 24.33% (-0.0070000000000014 -0.01) 34.78% (0.051000000000002 0.05)
Both teams to score 59.9% (0.036000000000001 0.04)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
57.24% (0.042000000000002 0.04)42.76% (-0.045000000000002 -0.05)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
34.84% (0.042999999999999 0.04)65.16% (-0.045000000000002 -0.05)
Lugano Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
78.97% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)21.02%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
46.19% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)53.81%
Pafos FC Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
75.85% (0.048000000000002 0.05)24.15% (-0.050000000000001 -0.05)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
41.53% (0.070999999999998 0.07)58.46% (-0.072999999999993 -0.07)
Score Analysis
    Lugano 40.89%
    Pafos FC 34.78%
    Draw 24.33%
LuganoDrawPafos FC
2-1 @ 8.77% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
1-0 @ 7.92% (-0.016 -0.02)
2-0 @ 6.17% (-0.013 -0.01)
3-1 @ 4.56% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
3-2 @ 3.24% (0.0020000000000002 0)
3-0 @ 3.21% (-0.0070000000000001 -0.01)
4-1 @ 1.78% (-0.002 -0)
4-2 @ 1.26%
4-0 @ 1.25% (-0.002 -0)
Other @ 2.72%
Total : 40.89%
1-1 @ 11.25%
2-2 @ 6.23% (0.0049999999999999 0)
0-0 @ 5.08% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
3-3 @ 1.54% (0.004 0)
Other @ 0.23%
Total : 24.33%
1-2 @ 7.99% (0.0070000000000006 0.01)
0-1 @ 7.21% (-0.0039999999999996 -0)
0-2 @ 5.13% (0.0049999999999999 0)
1-3 @ 3.79% (0.008 0.01)
2-3 @ 2.95% (0.0070000000000001 0.01)
0-3 @ 2.43% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
1-4 @ 1.35% (0.0049999999999999 0)
2-4 @ 1.05% (0.004 0)
Other @ 2.89%
Total : 34.78%

How you voted: Lugano vs Pafos

Lugano
79.7%
Draw
12.2%
Pafos FC
8.1%
74
rhs 2.0
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