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FA Cup
Exeter City
FA Cup | Third Round
Jan 11, 2025 at 3pm UK
St James Park
Oxford United

Exeter
3 - 1
Oxford Utd

Mitchell (22', 40'), Harper (64')
Richards (82')
FT(HT: 2-1)
Phillips (14')
Scarlett (71'), Sibley (85'), Ferdinan (90+5')
Goodrham (81')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's FA Cup clash between Exeter City and Oxford United, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Exeter City

All competitions
FA Cup
Last Game: Exeter 1-2 Bolton
Saturday, January 4 at 3pm in League One

Oxford United

All competitions
Last Game: Preston 1-1 Oxford Utd
Saturday, January 4 at 3pm in Championship

We said: Exeter City 1-2 Oxford United

 While Oxford are set to make a number of changes for the third-round tie, they will still carry plenty of momentum into the weekend after winning three and drawing one of their four matches under Rowett, and we think that they will keep that run going by claiming a narrow victory over a club they have beaten in four of their last five meetings. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Exeter City win with a probability of 45.41%. A win for Oxford United had a probability of 29.18% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Exeter City win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.18%) and 2-0 (7.86%). The likeliest Oxford United win was 0-1 (7.94%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.07%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Exeter City would win this match.

Result
Exeter CityDrawOxford United
45.41% (0.0050000000000026 0.01) 25.41% (-0.013999999999999 -0.01) 29.18% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
Both teams to score 53.83% (0.045999999999999 0.05)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
50.35% (0.056999999999995 0.06)49.65% (-0.058 -0.06)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
28.33% (0.050000000000001 0.05)71.67% (-0.050999999999988 -0.05)
Exeter City Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
78.14% (0.02600000000001 0.03)21.86% (-0.027000000000001 -0.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
44.91% (0.037999999999997 0.04)55.09% (-0.039000000000001 -0.04)
Oxford United Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
68.89% (0.035000000000011 0.04)31.11% (-0.036999999999999 -0.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
32.56% (0.041999999999994 0.04)67.44% (-0.043000000000006 -0.04)
Score Analysis
    Exeter City 45.4%
    Oxford United 29.18%
    Draw 25.41%
Exeter CityDrawOxford United
1-0 @ 10.34% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
2-1 @ 9.18% (0.0019999999999989 0)
2-0 @ 7.86% (-0.0059999999999993 -0.01)
3-1 @ 4.65% (0.0049999999999999 0)
3-0 @ 3.99%
3-2 @ 2.72% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
4-1 @ 1.77% (0.0029999999999999 0)
4-0 @ 1.52% (0.00099999999999989 0)
4-2 @ 1.03% (0.0029999999999999 0)
Other @ 2.35%
Total : 45.4%
1-1 @ 12.07% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
0-0 @ 6.8% (-0.016 -0.02)
2-2 @ 5.36% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
3-3 @ 1.06% (0.0029999999999999 0)
Other @ 0.13%
Total : 25.41%
0-1 @ 7.94% (-0.011 -0.01)
1-2 @ 7.05% (0.0030000000000001 0)
0-2 @ 4.63% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
1-3 @ 2.74% (0.004 0)
2-3 @ 2.09% (0.0049999999999999 0)
0-3 @ 1.8% (0.002 0)
Other @ 2.93%
Total : 29.18%

How you voted: Exeter vs Oxford Utd

Exeter City
50.0%
Oxford United
50.0%
42
Head to Head
Jul 24, 2024 3pm
Club Friendlies 3
Oxford Utd
0-1
Exeter
Magennis (16')
Apr 27, 2024 12.30pm
Gameweek 46
Exeter
1-2
Oxford Utd
Alli (52')
Aimson (45+6'), Harris (90+3')
Harris (12'), Brannagan (40' pen.)
Stevens (84'), Cumming (89')
> Preview
Sep 23, 2023 3pm
Gameweek 9
Oxford Utd
3-0
Exeter
Rodrigues (8'), Brannagan (83' pen., 90+4' pen.)
Long (72')

Aimson (82')
Jan 1, 2023 3pm
Gameweek 25
Oxford Utd
0-1
Exeter
Nombe (79')
> Preview
Nov 26, 2022 3pm
Second Round
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Exeter
Taylor (9'), Bodin (79', 88'), Brannagan (85')
Jay (89')
> Preview
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