Gil Vicente and Vitoria de Guimaraes will be looking to begin the New Year on a high when they square off at the Estadio Cidade de Barcelos on Monday.
Both sides head into the game level on points and separated by just one place just outside the Conference League qualification places and this makes for an exciting affair.
Match preview
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Gil Vicente returned to winning ways in style in the Primeira Liga when they secured a comprehensive 3-0 victory over Tondela at the Estadio Joao Cardoso last Tuesday.
With nothing to separate the sides heading into half time, the visitors rallied in the second half and upped the ante as Murilo de Souza and Matheus Bueno scored 19 minutes before substitute Boubacar Hanne put the icing on the cake in the 93rd minute to wrap up an impressive team performance.
Prior to that, the Gilistas saw their two-game winning streak come to an end on December 18, when they were beaten 3-0 by Sporting Lisbon courtesy of second-half goals from Nuno Santos, Goncalo Inacio and Daniel Braganca.
After a rough start to the season, when they managed two wins from their first nine games, Ricardo Soares's men have turned a corner in recent weeks, claiming three wins from their most recent four outings, scoring eight goals and keeping three clean sheets in that time.
While Gil Vicente will be looking to keep the ball rolling and move into the European qualification places, they go up against an opposing side who they have failed to defeat in any of the last three encounters between the teams on home turf.
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Meanwhile, Vitoria de Guimaraes failed to find their feet last time out as they bottled a one-goal lead to settle for a 1-1 draw against Boavista on home turf.
In a cagey affair at the Dom Afonso Henriques, Colombian forward Oscar Estupinan put the hosts ahead in the 81st minute but Os Axadrezados replied with a goal of their own three minutes later through Tiago Ilori.
This followed a 1-0 defeat at the hands of Santa Clara on December 17, when Portuguese forward Rui Costa scored the only goal of the game in the 40th minute to end their two-game winning run.
With 23 points from 16 games, Vitoria de Guimaraes are currently eighth in the Primeira Liga standings, level on points with Monday's hosts and two points behind Estoril Praia in the final Conference League qualification spot.
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Team News
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Following his side's dominant display against Tondela last time out, Soares could name a similar XI on Monday, meaning we could see an attacking trio of Murilo de Souza, Fran Navarro and Samuel Lino once again.
On the injury front, Gil Vicente remain without Brazilian midfielder Joao Afonso, who has been sidelined since last April after picking up a severe injury.
He is joined on the Gilistas injury table by fellow countryman Jean, who came off with a muscle problem against Famalicao on December 5.
Meanwhile, Vitoria de Guimaraes will have to make do with the absence of several key players down the spine of the team as the trio of Falaye Sacko, Alfa Semedo and Khalid Abdul Mumin are all on international duties at the Africa Cup of Nations.
Helder Sa, Ricardo Quaresma, Marcus Edwards, Borges Guedes and Oscar Estupinan are all out of contention for Os Axadrezados after recently testing positive for COVID-19.
Gil Vicente possible starting lineup:
Frelih; Hackman, Silva, Fernandes, Talocha; Aburjania, Pedrinho, Bueno; Murilo, Navarro, Lino
Vitoria de Guimaraes possible starting lineup:
Varela; Soares, Fernandes, Borevkovic, Ferreira; Silva, Handel, Janvier; Lameiras, Duarte, Rochinha
We say: Gil Vicente 1-1 Vitoria de Guimaraes
Looking at the positions of both teams in the league standings, we expect a thrilling contest with both sides taking the game to one another. However, Gil Vicente have struggled to get going on home turf this season, picking up eight points from eight games, and we predict they will settle for a share of the spoils in this one.
Top tip
Joshua Ojele
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitoria de Guimaraes win with a probability of 38.62%. A win for Gil Vicente had a probability of 33.88% and a draw had a probability of 27.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.18%) and 0-2 (7.05%). The likeliest Gil Vicente win was 1-0 (10.33%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood.
