In one of two Euro 2024 playoff Path C semi-finals on Thursday, former continental champions Greece pit their wits against a Kazakhstan side still waiting for their first major tournament appearance.
The victor of the Athens battle will square off with Georgia or Luxembourg in next week's final for the chance to advance to Euro 2024 Group F, where Portugal, Turkey and the Czech Republic are waiting to welcome them.
Match preview
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Twenty years on from conquering the continent, Greece are now just two victories away from ending their European Championships exile, having failed to qualify for the last two editions of the competition in 2012 and 2016.
Group B of Euro 2024 qualifying followed the script to a tee, with France and the Netherlands taking first and second place respectively and Greece in mid-table obscurity, taking third spot in the five-team section ahead of the Republic of Ireland and basement boys Gibraltar.
Gus Poyet's men did the double over the fourth and fifth-placed nations, while also earning a creditable 2-2 draw against France in their closing battle, to amass 13 points in the section, two fewer than they managed during a near-faultless 2022-23 Nations League campaign.
With five wins from six games in League C Group 2, the Euro 2004 winners blew the competition out of the water to seal promotion to League B - where Ireland, Finland and England await for 2024-25 - and, more importantly, nab one of the 12 Euros playoff spots on offer.
The Pirate Ship's home exploits makes for extremely pleasant reading ahead of Thursday's semi-final showdown, as they have only been beaten in two of their last 21 battles in front of their own fans, and even then Spain and the Netherlands could only scrape 1-0 victories.
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In spite of their penchant for strong performances at home and significantly greater European nous, Greece boss Poyet has affirmed that his players will not be underestimating Kazakhstan, who have a first-ever major tournament appearance firmly in their sights this month.
Magomed Adiev's side were one of four teams jostling for the top two places in Euro 2024 qualifying Group H, in which they won six of their 10 games to accrue an applaudable 18 points, but their total was only good enough for fourth place behind Denmark, Slovenia and fellow playoff contenders Finland.
However, Slovenia were the only nation that Kazakhstan failed to overcome in their six-team section - the Hawks even claimed a notable 3-2 scalp at home to Euro 2020 semi-finalists Denmark - and as is the case with Greece, the visitors will also play in League B of the 2024-25 Nations League after topping their third-tier group.
Adiev's men have already taken to the field once this month, warming up for Thursday's game with a straightforward 2-0 friendly victory over Turkmenistan thanks to goals from Islam Chesnokov and Aleksandr Zuyev, their seventh triumph from their last 10 matches in all competitions.
In order to keep their dreams of a famous Euro 2024 qualification alive, though, the Hawks must earn a first victory over Greece at the fourth attempt, having lost all three of their previous battles with the Pirate Ship between 2004 and 2006, when their hosts were the champions of the continent.
Team News
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Aside from stricken Norwich City left-back Dimitris Giannoulis - who is facing a minimum of six weeks out with a hamstring injury - Greece have all of their senior troops available for this month's fixtures, and Poyet will receive a double suspension boost for Thursday's semi-final too.
Indeed, Petros Mantalos and Dimitrios Kourbelis both sat out the draw with France due to an accumulation of bookings but are now back at their manager's disposal, as is Liverpool's Kostas Tsimikas, who was rested for that clash with Les Bleus.
Tsimikas will no doubt slot straight back in on the left-hand side in place of the absent Giannoulis, and the line will be led by AZ Alkmaar marksman Vangelis Pavlidis, the joint-top scorer in the 2023-24 Eredivisie season alongside Luuk de Jong with 22 strikes.
As for Kazakhstan, Adiev will be forced into a slight rejig in defence, as Zenit St Petersburg man Nuraly Alip picked up his third yellow card of qualifying in their 2-1 loss to Slovenia in November and therefore has a one-game ban to serve.
Alip is just one of four players in the Kazakhstan ranks not plying his trade in his homeland, the others being Zuyev (Arsenal Tula), Bakhtiyar Zaynutdinov (Besiktas) and Abat Aymbetov (Adana Demirspor).
By netting a brace in a 2-1 victory over Finland in October, Zaynutdinov became Kazakhstan's all-time leading male goalscorer with 14 strikes to his name and is now primed and ready to go again after missing November's fixtures with a broken nose.
Greece possible starting lineup:
Vlachodimos; Retsos, Chatzidiakos, Mavropanos; Rota, Bakasetas, Bouchalakis, Mantalos, Tsimikas; Pavlidis, Masouras
Kazakhstan possible starting lineup:
Shatsky; Marochkin, Maliy, Bystrov; Zuyev, Beysebekov, Kuat, Vorogovsky; Zaynutdinov; Aymbetov, Chesnokov
We say: Greece 2-1 Kazakhstan
Despite being bereft of any household names, Kazakhstan have thrown down the gauntlet to many of their continental foes in recent months and will receive a timely boost with the return of leading scorer Zaynutdinov.
Thursday's game should not be a totally comfortable affair for Greece, whose defence is unlikely to emerge unscathed, but we still expect Poyet's men to march on to next week's playoff final.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Ben Knapton
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