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Premier League | Gameweek 15
Feb 12, 2025 at 7.30pm UK
Goodison Park
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Everton
vs.
Liverpool

Everton vs. Liverpool: Why Premier League title race could be decided in games following Merseyside derby

© Imago
A win for Liverpool in the Merseyside derby on Wednesday night could significantly boost the Reds' chances of winning the Premier League title.

Liverpool's fate in the Premier League title race could be decided in the next five games, starting with their match against Everton, Reds expert David Lynch has argued.

Arne Slot's team are set to play the Toffees away from home in the final ever Merseyside derby at Goodison Park, and they head into the clash already six points ahead of second-placed Arsenal in the Premier League.

While a win on Wednesday would see Liverpool move nine clear of the Gunners having played the same number of games, the Merseyside derby is just the start of a period of tough fixtures, with the Reds playing Wolverhampton Wanderers, Aston Villa, Manchester City and Newcastle United in the league in the four matches after their clash against Everton.

Lynch told Sports Mole that those five games could decide the title race, saying: "There's a lot of tough fixtures in there for a starting point. Everton away is tough, Villa away is very difficult. [Manchester City] away - they will want to do everything to hurt Liverpool. Then in between, Wolves - they're starting to find form albeit [the game's] at Anfield - and Newcastle at home, and they are an excellent side.

"[Arsenal] will be watching the Merseyside derby on Wednesday hoping for a favour from Everton, which Everton have obliged many times in recent years. Seven out of the last 10 derbies at Goodison have ended in draws. So take that as the start of the run - some dropped points, that'd be absolutely perfect [for Arsenal]. It gives encouragement.

"It's a crucial period in the title race. Arsenal can't win it in this run, but if they are to be given any encouragement whatsoever, it will come in this run."

If Liverpool did beat Everton, they would only need 31 points from a possible 42 to reach 90 points, a benchmark that many see as being enough to win the title.

What will Liverpool need to do to beat Everton?

The Merseyside derby has often been a closely fought contest, with no other fixture in Premier League history producing more 0-0 draws (12).

However, the matchup is also infamous for its intensity, and the fixture has seen the most red cards (23) in the history of the Premier League.

When asked by Sports Mole if Liverpool have to match Everton's intensity to achieve a positive result, Lynch said: "That's the bare minimum. Arne Slot spoke about that in his press conference, but he also mentioned that he watched the derby back last year, and he said in the first 15 minutes he felt there were 10 free kicks, and Liverpool gave nine of them away.

"So you've got to match them for intensity, but you've also got to be smart about it, because Everton will want to try and win little free kicks. They'll want to get the crowd up. They'll want to put the ball in the box as frequently as possible, because that was a real route to success for them last season.

"If Liverpool start well and keep the ball, then nervousness will start to seep into the crowd, but they've struggled to do that down the years. They've given Everton encouragement in the first 10 minutes, and from there that's set the tone and that's been how the game's gone. You've got to be really smart and hope that if you can have a good first 10, 15 minutes, the crowd, those nerves start to come then."

The Reds were beaten 2-0 by the Toffees in the same match last term, and the Blues found ways of physically outmatching their rivals back in April 2024.

Liverpool's Virgil van Dijk and Ibrahima Konate pictured on October 23, 2024© Imago

Could Liverpool win the Premier League and Champions League?

While Liverpool are clear favourites to win the Premier League title, they also have been touted as one of the favourites to win the Champions League given they finished first in the competition's league phase.

However, their chances of doing so could depend on taking as many points as possible over the next five games as accumulating near maximum points in this period may allow the Reds to shift focus onto European competition as the season draws to a close.

Lynch acknowledged the difficulty Liverpool will face in their quest to win multiple trophies, but insisted that the Reds will likely not have a better chance to do so for some time, telling Sports Mole: "You don't want to sound arrogant about these things and say 'they can win the Premier League and then focus on the other trophies' and work in that way.

If Liverpool win the Premier League and the Champions League in the same season, it's extremely difficult, but they look like the best team in Europe. If they're ever going to have a chance, this is going to be it. If they're going to do it, the best way to do it is to get that huge lead in the Premier League. Get it wrapped up early so in the latter stages of the Champions League there's not much riding on your league games.

"Maybe Salah can miss a Premier League game, maybe Gravenberch and Van Dijk could miss the odd game. You can manage your way through the season like that. That's how they've got to approach it, but it all rides on getting good results in these five games. That's a huge ask - these games are tough enough as they are. It's a difficult one, but the opportunity to put themselves in a really good position is there."

Six of Liverpool's last 10 Premier League games are at home, but they will likely be able to drop points multiple times and still win the title if they can emerge from their next five top-flight fixtures with at least four wins.

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Written by
Lewis Nolan
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Data Failed

Who will win Saturday's Premier League clash between Everton and Liverpool?

Everton
Draw
Liverpool
Everton
12.4%
Draw
10.1%
Liverpool
77.5%
387
Collect / Create New Data
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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Liverpool23175156213556
2Arsenal24148249222750
3Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest24145540271347
4Chelsea24127547311643
5Manchester CityMan City24125748351341
6Newcastle UnitedNewcastle24125742291341
7Bournemouth24117641281340
8Aston Villa2410773437-337
9Fulham249963632436
10Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton2481063538-334
11Brentford2494114242031
12Crystal Palace247982830-230
13Manchester UnitedMan Utd2485112834-629
14Tottenham HotspurSpurs24831348371127
15West Ham UnitedWest Ham2476112946-1727
16Everton236892328-526
17Wolverhampton WanderersWolves2454153452-1819
18Leicester CityLeicester2445152553-2817
19Ipswich TownIpswich2437142249-2716
20Southampton2423191854-369


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