Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 56.67%. A draw had a probability of 24.4% and a win for Pacos de Ferreira had a probability of 18.92%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.31%) and 1-2 (9.48%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.47%), while for a Pacos de Ferreira win it was 1-0 (6.95%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood.