Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Casa Pia win with a probability of 37.58%. A win for Academico de Viseu had a probability of 36.13% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Casa Pia win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.28%) and 0-2 (6.4%). The likeliest Academico de Viseu win was 1-0 (9.44%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.49%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Casa Pia would win this match.