Madison Keys's ambition for a first Australian Open final and second overall pits her against the in-form second seed Iga Swiatek in Thursday's semi-final.
The world No. 2 has dispatched opponents en route to her second last-four match Down Under and is in ominous form before taking on the 19th seed.
Match preview
© Imago
Riding high after claiming her 10th win on the trot by defeating 28th seed Elina Svitolina in Wednesday's quarter-final, Keys is back in the last four in Melbourne for the third time and ten years after her first.
The 29-year-old certainly cannot be accused of having an easy route to Thursday's match, having outwitted three seeded opponents in consecutive rounds after victories over 10th seed Danielle Collins, No. 6 seed Elena Rybakina and Svitolina.
Keys has needed deciders in the last two, responding to Rybakina levelling the match in the fourth round and requiring a turnaround to defeat her Ukrainian opponent in the quarters, highlighting her battling qualities and tendency to react to setbacks.
The American's approach is undoubtedly risky, with her penchant for pulling the trigger irksome when it does not come off and tough to contain when she finds her range.
That much was obvious in her quarter-final triumph against Svitolina, against whom she fired 49 winners but accrued a staggeringly high 41 unforced errors, though the latter will not stop the 29-year-old from going for broke against Swiatek.
The champion in Adelaide has returned to the last four, seeking another shot at a Grand Slam title after her 2017 run to the US Open decider ended in disappointment against countrywoman Sloane Stephens; the 19th seed will need to play perfectly to beat her Polish opponent.
© Imago
While Keys has needed to show her competitive edge en route to the semis, Swiatek has been in imperious form throughout her run, particularly in the last four rounds, where the 23-year-old five-time Grand Slam champion has dropped seven games against Rebecca Sramkova, Emma Raducanu, Eva Lys and Emma Navarro.
With 14 games dropped altogether since her tournament opener, the second seed's stinginess ahead of her semi-final contest falls short of only three former Aussie Open semi-finalists – Maria Sharapova (nine), Monica Seles (12) and Steffi Graf (13) – in the 128-player draw in the Open Era.
After failing to make it past the third round at Wimbledon and following her quarter-final exit at the US Open, the 23-year-old is back in a Grand Slam semi-final for the first time since her run to a third consecutive French Open title and fourth overall, keen to make it to Saturday's championship match against Aryna Sabalenka or Paula Badosa.
With this year's run to the semis following 2023's fourth-round disappointment and last year's round-three exit, the five-time Slam champion returns to the semi-final in Melbourne, aiming to outdo her 2022 performance.
Swiatek's progress three years ago ended at the hands of Collins in straight sets, an outcome the second seed looks to avoid when she takes on another United States player in Keys.
Tournament so far
Madison Keys:
First round: vs. Ann Li 6-4 7-5
Second round: vs. Elena-Gabriela Ruse 7-6[1] 2-6 7-5
Third round: vs. Danielle Collins 6-4 6-4
Round of 16: vs. Elena Rybakina 6-3 1-6 6-3
Quarter-final: vs. Elina Svitolina 3-6 6-3 6-4
Iga Swiatek:
First round: Katerina Siniakova 6-3 6-4
Second round: vs. Rebecca Sramkova 6-0 6-2
Third round: vs. Emma Raducanu 6-1 6-0
Round of 16: vs. Eva Lys 6-0 6-1
Quarter-final: vs. Emma Navarro 6-1 6-2
Head To Head
Rome (2024) - Quarter-final: Swiatek 6-1 6-3
Madrid (2024) - Semi-final: Swiatek 6-1 6-3
Cincinnati (2022) - Round of 16: Keys 6-3 6-4
Indian Wells (2022) - Quarter-final: Swiatek 6-1 6-0
Rome (2021) - Round of 32: Swiatek 7-5 6-1
Keys trails in her head-to-head with Swiatek, succumbing to four defeats in the pair's five meetings.
However, three of the American player's losses have been on the red clay, where her younger opponent flourishes.
They have split their hard-court match-ups 1-1, with Swiatek beating Keys in straight sets at Indian Wells three years ago and the United States woman doing likewise in Cincinnati later that year.
Since losing to Belinda Bencic at the US Open in 2021, the Polish star has recorded six wins at majors against opponents ranking between 11th and 20th, dropping one set, and the Pole aims to notch a seventh straight triumph against such opponents when she faces the No. 19 seed.
Keys seeks consecutive victories over top-10 opponents at the Aussie Open after getting the better of sixth seed Rybakina; however, the American is 8-13 against the elite at majors.
We say: Swiatek to win in two sets
Much will depend on Keys executing to a high level against Swiatek, as the hard-hitting American hopes to make Swiatek uncomfortable with her ball-striking.
However, backing the second seed to record a fifth success over the 29-year-old in their sixth meeting is the safe bet, with the world No. 2 expected to claim a seventh straight Grand Slam victory against opponents that rank 11th to 20th.
