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Milan logo
Serie A | Gameweek 28
Jun 28, 2020 at 4.15pm UK
Giuseppe Meazza
Roma logo

AC Milan
2 - 0
Roma

Rebic (76'), Calhanoglu (89' pen.)
Castillejo (41'), Rebic (62')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Pellegrini (23'), Veretout (90+1')

Preview: AC Milan vs. Roma - predictions, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Serie A clash between AC Milan and Roma at San Siro, including team news and predicted lineups.

AC Milan will be looking to keep alive their slim European prospects when they welcome Roma to San Siro on Sunday afternoon.

The Rossoneri beat Lecce 4-1 in their return to Serie A action last weekend and are eighth in the table, nine points off fifth-place opponents Roma.


Match preview

AC Milan manager Stefano Pioli pictured in February 2020© Reuters

One win from five games prior to the three-month hiatus, culminating in a 2-1 home loss at home to lowly Genoa, saw the pressure grow on Milan boss Stefano Pioli.

Despite the comfortable win over Lecce in their first game back, it is looking increasingly likely as though Pioli will be replaced by Ralf Rangnick at the end of the season.

Pioli, who brushed aside those rumours in the week, is now seeking successive wins for the first time since January in the hope of breaking into the top seven.

Finishing seventh would be enough for Europa League football next term thanks to Napoli's Coppa Italia triumph last week, but the Champions League is well out of their reach.

That is not the case for Roma, who still have hope of catching Atalanta BC in fourth place to secure a place in UEFA's flagship competition next season.

Paulo Fonseca's side beat Sampdoria 2-1 in their first game back to remain fifth, a position that they have found themselves in since the start of February.

Paulo Fonseca pictured as Roma boss in August 2019© Reuters

Edin Dzeko scored twice in the final 25 minutes to cancel out Manolo Gabbiadini's opener for Sampdoria, making it five games without defeat for Roma in all competitions.

The Giallorossi will have to keep that run going if they are to make up the six-point gap on Atalanta in the remaining 11 fixtures.

This weekend's trip to San Siro, while a daunting fixture on the face of it, presents a good opportunity to put three more points on the board.

As well as losing to Genoa in their most recent home league outing, Milan have also dropped points to Hellas Verona, Sampdoria, Sassuolo, Napoli and Lazio at San Siro since early November.

The Rossoneri have scored only 13 goals in their first 13 home games of this campaign - their worst such total since 1997-98 (12) - and that is ultimately what may cost Pioli his job.

As for Roma, they are flying high under Fonseca and will not give up hope of breaking into the top four, knowing that they already have the safety net of a place in the Europa League barring a huge collapse.

AC Milan's Serie A form: DLWDLW
AC Milan's (all competitions): DWDLDW

Roma's Serie A form: LLLWWW
Roma's form (all competitions): LWWDWW


Team News

Ante Rebic during a Croatia training session on October 11, 2018© Reuters

Milan centre-back Simon Kjaer is reported to have avoided ligament damage after picking up an injury against Lecce, but Pioli is unlikely to take any risks on Sunday.

Leo Duarte is also carrying a knock, so Matteo Gabbia has been tipped to come in alongside Alessio Romagnoli for just his third Serie A start.

Veteran striker Zlatan Ibrahimovic is still out of action, but Ante Rebic has more than filled the gap, scoring 44% of Milan's total league goals this calendar year.

Roma have Gianluca Mancini back from injury and Fonseca may also make further changes to his lineup.

Carles Perez and Javier Pastore started last time out but could be replaced here by Cengiz Under and Lorenzo Pellegrini.

Up top, Dzeko has scored four goals against Milan in Serie A, three of which have come at San Siro.

AC Milan possible starting lineup:
Donnarumma; Conti, Gabbia, Romagnoli, Hernandez; Kessie, Bennacer; Castillejo, Calhanoglu, Bonaventura; Rebic

Roma possible starting lineup:
Mirante; Zappacosta, Smalling, Mancini, Kolarov; Veretout, Cristante; Under, Pellegrini, Mkhitaryan; Dzeko


Sports Mole Logo

We say: AC Milan 1-1 Roma

Milan are looking to register consecutive home wins against Roma for the first time since 2004. The Rossoneri have been far too inconsistent this season, especially at home, but we can see them taking a point off Roma this weekend.



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Roma win with a probability of 37.92%. A win for AC Milan had a probability of 37.11% and a draw had a probability of 25%.

The most likely scoreline for a Roma win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.23%) and 0-2 (5.93%). The likeliest AC Milan win was 2-1 (8.32%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.7%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood.


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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Atalanta BCAtalanta1391334161828
2Inter Milan1384131141728
3Napoli128221991026
4Fiorentina1274125101525
5Juventus136702171425
6Lazio1281325141125
7AC Milan125432014619
8Bologna114611513218
9Udinese125161518-316
10Empoli12363910-115
11Torino124261518-314
12Roma123451417-313
13Parma132651721-412
14Hellas VeronaHellas Verona134091732-1512
15Como122461323-1010
16CagliariCagliari122461222-1010
17Genoa12246922-1310
18Lecce12237521-169
19Monza121561015-58
20VeneziaVenezia122281121-108


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