Caykur Rizespor can improve their chances of remaining in the Turkish Super Lig beyond this season with a victory at Bahcesehir Okullari Stadium on Sunday against Alanyaspor.
The club based in Alanya moved back into a European place thanks to a 2-0 win over Goztepe in their previous encounter, while Rizespor are nine points below the relegation zone despite a 3-2 win against Trabzonspor.
Match preview
Since entering the Super Lig in the 2016-17 campaign, Alanyaspor have steadily risen up the standings virtually every season and are currently in fourth, their highest-ever position.
In a domestic competition that can sometimes be a little chaotic, with plenty of teams launching hopeful long balls into the attack, Francesco Farioli has built a squad with intelligent organization and some strong build-up play out of the back.
Farioli has continued the great work implemented by former Alanyaspor boss Erol Bulut, who achieved great success in a short period with the club in 2019-20, leading them to a spot in the third round of Europa League qualifying for the first time in their history.
What seems to have held this team back from contending for a domestic title this season is their inconsistency at home, suffering a pair of lopsided defeats to Fenerbahce (5-2) and the league leaders Trabzonspor (4-0) in earlier matches this season.
They have been able to stay in the top half of the table thanks to some precise finishing in the final third and plenty of balanced scoring, with the second-most goals in the Super Lig (55) to this point of the 2021-22 campaign.
Their in-game adjustments and tactical shifts have rescued them several times in recent matches, scoring eight goals in their last three games in all competition, only one of which occurred in the opening 45 minutes.
Caykur Rizespor have consistently found themselves in the bottom half of the table over their past few campaigns, though they always seem to find a way to remain in the top flight.
However, it will be a tall order for Bulent Korkmaz and his side to escape relegation this season, as they are nine points behind Giresunspor in the battle to remain in the Turkish Super Lig.
Two weeks ago, the former centre-back with Galatasaray collected his first win as manager, as his players traded blows with the top team in Turkey in the blistering snow, earning three penalty kicks, including one in the 95th minute, to collect all three points.
Five of their final eight league games will be on the road, which does not bode well for this group, who have not won an away fixture all season, failing to score on four occasions.
They have only won two domestic encounters in 2022, both coming at home against sides currently in the top half of the table (Antalyaspor and Trabzonspor).
April will be a pivotal month for them as they face some challenging encounters, with three of their four scheduled opponents currently seeded in a top-four position in the league (Alanyaspor, Konyaspor and Fenerbahce).
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Team News
Tayfur Bingol has been in fine form for Alanyaspor lately, scoring three goals in his last two games, while Famara Diedhiou notched the winner in their previous encounter, thanks to some great work from Efecan Karaca, who is tied for second in assists this season behind Edin Visca and Matias Vargas.
We saw three new players in the lineup when they took to the field versus Goztepe, as Cristian Borja, Daniel Candeias and Oguz Aydin started in place of Furkan Bayir, Umut Gunes and Bingol.
Diedhiou leads the team with nine goals in this domestic campaign, as he is one of 17 players to have found the back of the net for them this season, while Emre Akbaba has been an excellent addition, with the man on loan from Galatasaray contributing eight strikes for this team.
Goals from Selim Ay and Damjan Dokovic helped lead Rizespor to a 2-0 win in their previous encounter against Alanyaspor, but Ay will not be available for this contest due to a ligament injury.
Joel Pohjanpalo has been a consistent contributor for this side domestically, scoring a hat-trick from the penalty spot at home to Trabzonspor to bring his tally for the year up to 12, which is tied for third in the league alongside Andreas Cornelius and Aleksandar Pesic.
We saw a different looking starting 11 for them against the league leaders as Erik Sabo, Carlos Ponck, Cemali Sertel and Alper Potuk were all put into the lineup to start that game.
Alanyaspor possible starting lineup:
Marafona; Borja, Awaziem, Milunovic, Juanfran; Fer, Novais, Gunes; Candeias, Aydin, Karaca
Caykur Rizespor possible starting lineup:
Akkan; Sabo, Holmen, Ponck, Sertel; Fernandes, Phiri; Bolasie, Boldrin, Boyd; Cisse
We say: Alanyaspor 4-1 Caykur Rizespor
Rizespor seem to be overwhelmed when going into enemy territory, conceding seven goals in their previous two road fixtures, and having to battle one of the most potent teams in the league, you can expect them to allow plenty of quality scoring opportunities which Alanyaspor are likely to bury.
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Alanyaspor win with a probability of 63.05%. A draw had a probability of 20.1% and a win for Caykur Rizespor had a probability of 16.87%.
The most likely scoreline for an Alanyaspor win was 2-0 with a probability of 9.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.92%) and 1-0 (9.37%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.36%), while for a Caykur Rizespor win it was 1-2 (4.68%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Alanyaspor would win this match.
