Separated by just three points in mid-table, Alanyaspor and Kayserispor square off at the Bahcesehir Okullari Stadium in round nine of the Super Lig on Monday.
The hosts head into the game off the back of a 1-1 draw with Konyaspor, while the visitors secured a 2-0 friendly victory over second-tier Genclerbirligi last Tuesday.
Match preview
Alanyaspor failed to return to winning ways last time out as Konyaspor came from behind to snatch a late 1-1 draw when the sides squared off at the Konya Buyuksehir Belediyesi Stadium.
Turkish defender Fatih Aksoy broke the deadlock four minutes into the second half before Chidozie Awaziem inadvertently turned the ball into his net with three minutes remaining in the contest to force a share of the spoils.
Prior to that, Bulent Korkmaz's men saw their three-game winning streak come to an end courtesy of a 1-1 draw against 10-man Trabzonspor at the Senol Gunes Stadium.
Taking away the nine goals conceded in successive games against Altay and Hatayspor back in August, the Alanya-based side have been solid at the back, shipping just two goals in their other six encounters.
However, they have struggled to match that performance at the opposite end of the pitch, where they have scored just eight goals so far, with only early relegation contenders Giresunspor, Goztepe and Caykur Rizespor scoring less.
Kayserispor, meanwhile, failed to move into the top half of the table last time out when they fell to a 2-1 defeat at the hands of high-flying Trabzonspor.
After falling behind to Anastasios Bakasetas's 12th-minute opener, Emrah Bassan struck in the 41st minute to level matters heading into the break, but Bakasetas converted his 60th-minute spot kick to hand the visitors their fifth win of the season.
The Anadolu Yildizi are now winless in three of their most recent four league outings since claiming consecutive wins over Basaksehir and Kasimpasa, picking up one draw and losing two in that time.
Kayserispor head into Monday's game fresh off the back of an impressive 2-0 victory over second-tier Genclerbirligi through second-half goals from Gokhan Sazdagi and Carlos Mane when the sides met in a friendly fixture during the international break.
Hikmet Karaman will hope the win last time out can serve as a springboard for a fine run of form as they seek to end their winless run and get their season back on track.
However, they face the daunting task of taking on an opposing side who are unbeaten in each of the last seven meetings between the sides since, dating back to a 2-1 loss back in December 2017.
- L
- W
- W
- W
- D
- D
- W
- W
- L
- W
- D
- L
- W
- L
- W
- D
- L
- W
Team News
Korkmaz will be unable to call upon the services of Ahmet Gulay as the Turkish full-back continues his long journey to full fitness after sustaining a severe groin problem.
Braga loanee Cristian Borja shook off an injury scare as he played the full 90 minutes against Konyaspor last time out and the Colombian defender could start on the left side of Alanyaspor's four-man defence.
Meanwhile, Kayserispor will take to the pitch without the services of Gustavo Campanharo, who continues his lengthy spell on the sidelines through a muscle injury.
However, they will be boosted by the return of 27-year-old forward Gokhan Sazdagi, who is now fit to play after recovering from COVID-19 which saw him miss the last three games.
With five-goal involvement in his most recent four outings, Bernard Mensah has been on song for Monday's visitors and the Ghanaian midfielder will be one to keep an eye on in this one.
Alanyaspor possible starting lineup:
Kirintili; Juanfran, Awaziem, Milunovic, Borja; Aksoy, Gunes; Karaca, Akbaba, Davidson; Diedhiou
Kayserispor possible starting lineup:
Lung; Bulut, Kolovetsios, Kolovetsios, Carole; Attamah, Fernandes; Thiam, Bassan, Mensah, Cardoso
We say: Alanyaspor 1-0 Kayserispor
Having failed to impress in each of their last two league outings, Kayserispor will be seeking to edge out the hosts and grab a morale-boosting victory. However, Alanyaspor head into Monday's game in fine form, and considering their recent run of results in this fixture, we are backing them to come away with all three points, albeit by a narrow margin.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Alanyaspor win with a probability of 60.24%. A draw had a probability of 22.6% and a win for Kayserispor had a probability of 17.18%.
The most likely scoreline for an Alanyaspor win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.43%) and 2-1 (9.75%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.71%), while for a Kayserispor win it was 0-1 (5.89%). The actual scoreline of 6-3 was predicted with a 0% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Alanyaspor would win this match.
