Arsenal are undoubtedly "huge underdogs" going into Wednesday's EFL Cup semi-final second leg with Newcastle United, but the Gunners are more than capable of turning around a 2-0 deficit, expert Charles Watts believes.
Mikel Arteta's men are on the brink of elimination from the competition after suffering a chastening two-goal home defeat in the first leg, where Anthony Gordon and Alexander Isak put the Gunners to the sword.
As a result, Arsenal need to win by three goals or prevail on penalties after a two-goal success to advance to the final, but they travel north on the back of an astonishing 5-1 thrashing of Manchester City, their fourth win on the spin in all competitions.
On the other side of the coin, Newcastle have lost their last two home games to Bournemouth (4-1) and Fulham (2-1), and speaking to Sports Mole, Watts talked up Arsenal's chances of completing a terrific turnaround if they can draw first blood at St James' Park.
"It's kind of role reversal really," Watts said. "When the first game rolled around, Newcastle had won six straight and were flying, Arsenal were struggling a little bit, confidence was low, and now it's
flipped on its head a little bit. They'll believe that they can do it and they absolutely can do it.
"Bournemouth went up there and scored four the other day. So it can absolutely happen, and what better preparation than smashing five past Manchester City for it. So they will be confident. It sounds cliche, but I think it's absolutely the case that the first goal is absolutely crucial.
"If Arsenal can get that first goal, even if you're talking 55, 60 minutes, if you can get that first goal, there's going to be so much energy in that stadium. You score the first goal, that energy is going to flip to nervous energy and fear, I would say, because Newcastle, we know that that dream of a trophy is there.
'Arsenal are huge underdogs, but they can definitely win'
"It's so close again. They think they're there. They certainly think they've got a big foot at Wembley after that first leg. But if Arsenal score first and just give them something to think about, I'm sure there'll be a lot of nervousness around that stadium and that can creep into the players.
"They don't even have to win by three goals. It can just be two goals and then you take the lottery that penalty shootouts can bring. So it's winnable. It's still a massive ask, though. They're huge underdogs going into the game, no doubt about it. But it's definitely one that they can win. They can overturn that deficit."
A competition where success has eluded them for over three decades, Arsenal have not won the EFL Cup since lifting the trophy aloft for the second time in 1993, losing the 2007, 2011 and 2018 finals since that triumph over Sheffield Wednesday.
Despite their early FA Cup exit, the Gunners are still vying for success on three fronts this season, sitting second in the Premier League table behind Liverpool and waiting to learn their opponents for the last 16 of the Champions League.
While Arsenal have been starved of EFL Cup stardom since the pre-Arsene Wenger days, Watts does not believe that winning the tournament is make-or-break for the rest of the campaign.
"I don't know if the season depends on this game," Watts added. "Say they won the League Cup, finished second and went out in the quarter-finals of the Champions League, I don't think many Arsenal fans would be sitting there at the end of the season deeming that season a success. I think a lot of them will still look at it as a really disappointing season.
"So I don't really think it revolves around it. It'll be nice and it could be the real kickstart to get that silverware. So don't get me wrong on that. It is very, very important. But I think they'll certainly be judged more on how they end up in the Premier League and how they end up in the Champions League than whether they win the Carabao Cup or not."
Arsenal "absolutely need" Dubai break after "brutal" January
© Imago
Once Wednesday's second leg is done and dusted, Arsenal have a 10-day rest period in between matches, as they will not participate in this weekend's FA Cup fourth-round matches or the Champions League playoffs before facing Leicester City on February 15.
The Gunners are expected to make the most of their elongated break with another warm-weather training camp in Dubai, a trip that was credited for reviving their season last term as they won 16 of their last 18 Premier League matches following their return.
Arteta all but confirmed that his squad would be jetting off to the Middle East in Tuesday's pre-game press conference, but Watts has conceded that Arsenal's previous successes after jaunts to Dubai will add even more pressure on the remainder of the campaign.
"Arteta loves it. He's been desperate to get back there. He loves it over there," Watts added. "The players love it over there. I think there's a lot of pressure now every time you go to Dubai, it's like 'you've got to win 16 straight when you come back from that now or it's an absolute failure.'
"They train, obviously. But it's about bonding as well. The families usually go out and allow time out. And the players need it, they absolutely need it. It's been a brutal January. And to be fair to them, they've handled it really well and picked up some good results. So they just need a break.
"It is very much about getting a group together, recharging the batteries, having a bit of downtime with families, enjoying yourself, just relaxing and then coming back for what is going to be a really demanding run in over the final three months."
Should Arsenal pull off a remarkable semi-final comeback on Wednesday, they will face either North London rivals Tottenham Hotspur or reigning EFL Cup champions Liverpool in the final on March 16.
Arteta also delivered a team news update before the trip to St James' Park, revealing whether Ben White would be available for selection as he closes in on a return from knee surgery.
Ben Knapton
