Copa Libertadores | First Round | 1st Leg
Feb 5, 2025 at 12.30am UK
Estadio Monumental de Maturin
Monagas2 - 0Defensor
Abdiel Rodriguez Mena (78'), Manrique (90')
Macelli (25'), Abdiel Rodriguez Mena (54'), Piris (73')
Macelli (25'), Abdiel Rodriguez Mena (54'), Piris (73')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Coverage of the Copa Libertadores First Round clash between Monagas and Defensor Sporting.
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Defensor 2-0 Boston River
Saturday, February 1 at 12.30am in Uruguayan Primera Division
Saturday, February 1 at 12.30am in Uruguayan Primera Division
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Monagas win with a probability of 37.17%. A win for Defensor Sporting had a probability of 36.39% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Monagas win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.2%) and 2-0 (6.37%). The likeliest Defensor Sporting win was 0-1 (9.64%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.57%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Monagas would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Monagas | Draw | Defensor Sporting |
37.17% ( -0.42) | 26.43% ( -0.04) | 36.39% ( 0.46) |
| Both teams to score 52.77% ( 0.17) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 47.97% ( 0.2) | 52.03% ( -0.2) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 26.24% ( 0.18) | 73.76% ( -0.18) |
| Monagas Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.87% ( -0.14) | 27.13% ( 0.14) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 37.48% ( -0.19) | 62.52% ( 0.18) |
| Defensor Sporting Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.42% ( 0.37) | 27.58% ( -0.37) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 36.89% ( 0.48) | 63.11% ( -0.48) |
| Score Analysis |
Monagas 37.17%
Defensor Sporting 36.39%
Draw 26.43%
| Monagas | Draw | Defensor Sporting |
| 1-0 @ 9.76% ( -0.12) 2-1 @ 8.2% ( -0.05)2-0 @ 6.37% ( -0.1)3-1 @ 3.57% ( -0.03)3-0 @ 2.77% ( -0.06)3-2 @ 2.3% ( 0)4-1 @ 1.16% ( -0.02)4-0 @ 0.9% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.14% Total : 37.17% | 1-1 @ 12.57% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 7.48% ( -0.06)2-2 @ 5.28% ( 0.03)3-3 @ 0.99% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.11% Total : 26.43% | 0-1 @ 9.64% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 8.1% ( 0.07)0-2 @ 6.21% ( 0.08)1-3 @ 3.48% ( 0.07)0-3 @ 2.67% ( 0.06)2-3 @ 2.27% ( 0.03)1-4 @ 1.12% ( 0.03)Other @ 2.92% Total : 36.39% |
Head to Head
Apr 26, 2018 1.45am
Form Guide
