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Bayern logo
Bundesliga | Gameweek 30
Apr 20, 2021 at 7.30pm UK
Allianz Arena
Leverkusen logo

Bayern
2 - 0
B. Leverkusen

FT(HT: 2-0)

Preview: Bayern Munich vs. Bayer Leverkusen - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Bundesliga clash between Bayern Munich and Bayer Leverkusen, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Bayern Munich take on Bayer Leverkusen in the Bundesliga on Tuesday having taken a huge step towards claiming a ninth successive league title with a 3-2 win at Wolfsburg at the weekend.

Leverkusen, meanwhile, moved within six points of the Champions League qualification places with a comfortable 3-0 win against FC Koln.


Match preview

Bayern Munich manager Hansi Flick pictured on April 10, 2021© Reuters

After a difficult week which saw the Bavarians crash out of the Champions League on away goals to Paris Saint-Germain at the quarter-final stage, as well as drop two points at home to Union Berlin, it was important for Bayern to recover with a positive result against the in-form Wolves.

In truth, Bayern did have a huge amount of pressure relieved from their shoulders after RB Leipzig missed the opportunity to move within two points of the league leaders by only drawing 0-0 to Hoffenheim on Friday night, but becoming the first away side to win at the Volkswagen Arena in the Bundesliga this season was an impressive achievement nonetheless.

Jamal Musiala showed England's loss is Germany's gain with a superb first-half brace, squeezing an opener past Koen Casteels at the near post before Wolfsburg's goalkeeper made a serious howler by dropping a routine cross, which allowed Eric Choupo-Moting a simple finish to score his third goal in four starts and double his side's lead in the process.

Musiala restored Bayern's two-goal cushion with a fine header after Wout Weghorst had struck back, with Maximilian Philipp setting up a nervy finish in the second half, but Oliver Glasner's side could not find an equaliser.

While the Bundesliga title looks assured once again given that they now have a seven-point lead over Leipzig with only five matches remaining, Bayern's search for a new manager will begin after Hansi Flick confirmed that he will be leaving the club at the end of the season following a power struggle with sporting director Hasan Salihamidzic.

The 56-year-old has been strongly linked with becoming Joachim Low's successor in charge of the German national team.

Bayer Leverkusen's Moussa Diaby pictured in January 2021© Reuters

Leverkusen's new era has already begun after sacking Peter Bosz last month, with interim manager Hannes Wolf impressing in his three matches in charge so far.

The 40-year-old has switched Die Werkself's formation from 4-3-3 to 3-4-2-1, noticeably ensuring that there is more protection in place when the opposition counter-attack, which was a consistent weakness during Bosz's tenure.

Indeed, Klaas Jan Huntelaar's late consolation strike for Schalke 04 has been the only goal Leverkusen have conceded in Wolf's short reign so far, although that is likely to change at the Allianz Arena on Tuesday.

However, despite having fewer shots and less possession than Koln on Saturday, Markus Gisdol's struggling outfit failed to lay a glove on their opponents as Leon Bailey's brace and Moussa Diaby, who has featured in more of a right wing-back role under Wolf, scored to secure a comfortable win for their side and cement their position in the Europa League qualification places.

Should Wolf's side manage to go on a winning run between now and the end of the season, finishing inside the top four is not completely out of the equation yet, especially with Wolfsburg and Eintracht Frankfurt both faltering in recent weeks.

Bayern Munich Bundesliga form:
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • D
  • W

Bayern Munich form (all competitions):
  • W
  • W
  • L
  • D
  • W
  • W

Bayer Leverkusen Bundesliga form:
  • W
  • L
  • L
  • W
  • D
  • W



Team News

Bayern Munich's Robert Lewandowski reacts on January 17, 2021© Reuters

Robert Lewandowski has resumed full training after recovering from a knee injury, with Flick revealing he would "have to wait until Tuesday" before deciding whether to use his top goalscorer against Leverkusen.

With no Champions League action to rush him back for, though, the Poland striker is likely to have to wait until the trip to Mainz 05 at the weekend before receiving some minutes from his departing manager.

Niklas Sule, Serge Gnabry and Leon Goretzka are both likely to return then, too, with Douglas Costa, Marc Roca, Ron-Thorben Hoffmann and Malik Tillman all facing a race against time to feature again this campaign.

Musiala should keep his place in the starting XI after an inspired brace against Wolfsburg, with Kingsley Coman potentially replacing Leroy Sane on the opposite flank.

Leverkusen, meanwhile, hope to welcome Lars Bender back to first-team action in the coming weeks after the defender's meniscus injury, but he is unlikely to feature against Bayern.

Timothy Fosu-Mensah and Julian Baumgartlinger are out for the rest of the season with ACL injuries, with Florian Wirtz and Santiago Arias both sidelined for the time being, too.

Patrik Schick was preferred to Lucas Alario in attack against Koln and is set to keep his place after an improved offensive showing from Wolf's side.

Bayern Munich possible starting lineup:
Neuer; Pavard, Boateng, Hernandez, Davies; Kimmich, Alaba; Coman, Muller, Musiala; Choupo-Moting

Bayer Leverkusen possible starting lineup:
Hradecky; Jedvaj, Bender, Tapsoba; Diaby, Aranguiz, Palacios, Wendell; Bailey, Amiri; Schick


SM words green background

We say: Bayern Munich 2-1 Bayer Leverkusen

Despite Leverkusen's improved defensive solidity under Wolf, we expect Bayern to have too much firepower for their opponents even if Lewandowski does not feature.

It should be a fairly close encounter, though, with the Bavarians potentially having some tired legs after a congested schedule and busy treatment table.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting over 2.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Over 2.5:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayern Munich win with a probability of 61.69%. A win for Bayer Leverkusen had a probability of 19.38% and a draw had a probability of 18.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bayern Munich win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (7.39%) and 2-0 (7.37%). The likeliest Bayer Leverkusen win was 1-2 (5.04%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (7.92%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Bayern Munich would win this match.


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Game History

How you voted: Bayern vs B. Leverkusen

Bayern Munich
81.8%
Draw
12.1%
Bayer Leverkusen
6.1%
99
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Bayern Munich manager Hansi Flick pictured on April 10, 2021
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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Bayern MunichBayern108203372626
2RB Leipzig106311551021
3Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt1062226161020
4Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen104512116517
5Freiburg105231311217
6Union BerlinUnion Berlin1044298116
7Borussia DortmundDortmund105141818016
8Werder Bremen104331721-415
9Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach104241514114
10Mainz 05Mainz103431514113
11Stuttgart103431919013
12Wolfsburg103341918112
13Augsburg103341320-712
14Heidenheim103161315-210
15Hoffenheim102351319-69
16St Pauli10226712-58
17Holstein Kiel101271225-135
18VfL BochumVfL Bochum100281030-202


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