Bayern Munich take on RB Leipzig in the Bundesliga on Saturday in a top-of-the-table clash which could prove decisive in terms of the title picture.
League leaders Bayern have a two-point cushion over their forthcoming opponents at the top of the table; a draw on Saturday would be enough to keep them there.
Match preview
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Having surprisingly dropped points at home to Werder Bremen on the previous matchday, it was vital that Bayern did not do so again during a tricky trip to Stuttgart.
When Robert Lewandowski struck the post from close range and Manuel Neuer's rare misjudgement allowed Tanguy Coulibaly to slide the ball home into an empty net, it looked like being another one of those days for Hansi Flick's side. However, Bayern rallied, as the reigning European and Bundesliga champions so often do, with Kingsley Coman scoring for a third successive match by cutting in from the left flank and firing inside the near post.
After another Neuer mishap went unpunished, the in-form France winger continued to threaten, driving forwards with the ball before finding Lewandowski. The Pole's strike from range perhaps should have been saved by opposition goalkeeper Gregor Kobel, but the power proved too much for him to handle.
Neuer redeemed himself with a fine save late on before Douglas Costa scored his first goal since his return to the club in the summer after taking a leaf out of Coman's book by cutting inside and firing inside Grobel's near post to seal a hard-fought 3-1 victory.
Having been afforded the luxury of making nine changes in Tuesday's 1-1 draw at Atletico Madrid in the Champions League, Flick will be hoping his players are revitalised and fresh heading into their crucial clash with Leipzig.
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Indeed, Leipzig's legs could be flagging in comparison after Wednesday's dramatic 4-3 win at Istanbul Basaksehir, which ensured that victory against Manchester United on the final Champions League matchday will guarantee Julian Nagelsmann's side's progression to the knockout stages for a second successive season.
With Leipzig needing to win, the 33-year-old understandably utilised his first XI in Turkey, with goals from Yussuf Poulsen, Nordi Mukiele and Dani Olmo giving the visitors a 3-1 lead in the second half. However, a hat-trick from Irfan Kahveci looked to have denied the Germans victory, before substitute Alexander Sorloth struck in injury time for a dramatic winner.
The former Crystal Palace striker did not have such luck in last weekend's 2-1 victory over Arminia Bielefeld, however, missing from the penalty spot after being brought down by Amos Pieper. Nagelsmann admitted after the match that his side were fortunate to gain the three points, with the Bundesliga new boys their own worst victims once again after Pieper's careless backpass allowed Olmo to square for Christopher Nkunku, who obliged with a simple finish to add to Angelino's opener.
The 2016-17 Bundesliga runners-up will almost certainly require a more controlled performance if they are to have any chance of beating Bayern and subsequently overthrowing the Bavarians at the top of the table.
Bayern Munich Bundesliga form: WWWWDW
Bayern Munich form (all competitions): WWDWWD
RB Leipzig Bundesliga form: WWLWDW
RB Leipzig form (all competitions): WWDLWW
Team News
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Joshua Kimmich and Alphonso Davies remain long-term injuries for the hosts, though the duo did resume light training earlier this week, so returning to first-team action in the New Year looks increasingly likely for the instrumental pair.
Lewandowski did not travel to Madrid due to minor muscular problems, but the 32-year-old should recover in time and was likely being rested by Flick in any case after a gruelling period.
The 55-year-old must choose between Jerome Boateng and Niklas Sule at the heart of his defence, with the former likely to be preferred after an impressive performance at Stuttgart. Coman should continue on the opposite flank to Serge Gnabry, with summer transfer window signing Leroy Sane having to remain patient for regular starts.
Nagelsmann, meanwhile, remains without long-term absentees Konrad Laimer (ankle), Fabrice Hartmann and Lukas Klostermann (both knee), with Hwang Hee-chan (coronavirus) and Benjamin Henrichs (knee) likely to be absent, too.
The 33-year-old will be wary of fatigue in his side after a short turnaround between their trips to Turkey and Munich, with the likes of Nkunku, Tyler Adams and Marcel Halstenberg providing options to come into the side.
Bayern Munich possible starting lineup:
Neuer; Pavard, Boateng, Alaba, Hernandez; Tolisso, Goretzka; Gnabry, Muller, Coman; Lewandowski
RB Leipzig possible starting lineup:
Gulasci; Konate, Upamecano, Halstenberg; Mukiele, Sabitzer, Kampl, Angelino; Olmo, Forsberg; Poulsen
We say: Bayern Munich 3-1 RB Leipzig
Having already had the advantage of an extra day's rest in midweek, there is little doubt that advantage was increased further by Bayern's shorter trip and ability to rest nine players in what was essentially a meaningless match for them in Madrid.
As such, we expect Flick's side to have a little too much intensity for a Leipzig side who have not been firing on all cylinders of late in any case.
Top betting tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayern Munich win with a probability of 65.98%. A win for RB Leipzig had a probability of 17.1% and a draw had a probability of 16.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bayern Munich win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (7.73%) and 2-0 (6.46%). The likeliest RB Leipzig win was 1-2 (4.31%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (6.44%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood.
