Bolivia welcome Venezuela to the Estadio Hernando Siles in La Paz on Thursday night for their fifth FIFA World Cup 2022 qualification clash.
Bolivia, who are currently bottom of the standings in the CONMEBOL qualification table, desperately need three points if they are to stand any chance of reaching the World Cup.
Match preview
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With just one point from their first four qualifiers, Cesar Farias's Bolivia side are currently not in a good way.
Farias's men were comprehensively beaten by Brazil, Argentina and Ecuador in the early stages of qualification.
However, in November 2020, Bolivia did secure a point against Paraguay, a side that were in good form prior to the visit of La Verde.
In late March 2021, La Verde were then beaten 2-1 by Chile and then 2-1 by Ecuador in quick succession, rounding off a poor couple of friendly games.
Bolivia certainly have their work cut out for them if they are to work their way up the table.
Yet, fortunately for them, they come up against a side on Thursday night that are faring only marginally better.
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After losing their first three qualification ties against Colombia, Paraguay and Brazil, Venezuela pulled off an unexpected 2-1 win over Chile last time out, massively boosting their qualification hopes.
Yet, that game was played in November 2020, around seven months ago, and Jose Peseiro's side have not played a game since.
In fact, this time around, Venezuela will be without their talismanic poacher and former Premier League sweetheart Salomon Rondon, who scored in that shock win over Chile.
A glimmer of hope for La Vinotinto is that last time these two sides met, in a friendly in October 2019, Venezuela won the tie 4-1.
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Team News
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Farias has called up 26 players for this round of qualifiers, with skipper Marcelo Moreno the most significant among them.
It is likely that Bolivia will line up in a 4-4-2 formation, with Moreno and Juan Carlos Arce leading the line for La Verde.
Along with the absence of Rondon, La Vinotinto will also be without Granada's Yangel Herrera and Toronto FC starlet Yeferson Soteldo.
These notable absentees mean around half of the 30-man squad come into these qualifiers uncapped at international level.
Bolivia possible starting lineup:
Lampe; Bejarano, Haquin, Flores, Sagredo; Sanchez, Vaca, Wayar, Villarroel; Moreno, Arce
Venezuela possible starting lineup:
Farinez; Rosales, Chancellor, Hernandez, Mago; Machis, Rincon, Savarino; Martinez, Murillo, Cordova
We say: Bolivia 1-0 Venezuela
This could be an interesting contest between two sides that have not played a lot of national football in recent months. Venezuela in particular are likely to come into this tie feeling markedly rusty and low on high-quality players. We think Bolivia may snatch a crafty win here.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Venezuela win with a probability of 40.67%. A win for Bolivia had a probability of 35.76% and a draw had a probability of 23.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Venezuela win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.96%) and 0-2 (5.69%). The likeliest Bolivia win was 2-1 (8.05%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.58%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood.
Argentina
Uruguay
Ecuador
Colombia
Brazil
Paraguay
Bolivia
Venezuela
Chile
Peru
