Borussia Monchengladbach will be seeking to avoid their first bottom-half finish in the Bundesliga in over a decade when they play host to Hoffenheim on the final day of the 2021-22 campaign on Saturday.
The hosts have lost only one of their last six home games at Borussia-Park, while the visitors have failed to win any of their last eight league matches.
Match preview
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Borussia Monchengladbach have endured a disappointing Bundesliga campaign, and for the second successive season they have failed to qualify for Europe.
Eleven wins, nine draws and 13 defeats from 33 league games sees them sitting 10th in the table, 12 points behind the top six and the same number of points clear of the bottom three.
While the season as a whole has not been a success for Adi Hutter's men, they are having a strong end to the campaign, as they have only lost one of their last eight league games.
After beating Champions League-chasing RB Leipzig 3-1 on home soil, the Foals played out a 1-1 draw away at Europa League finalists Eintracht Frankfurt last weekend, a game which saw Alassane Plea score his ninth goal of the season.
Success on Saturday could prove challenging for Monchengladbach as they have failed to win any of their five Bundesliga home games against Hoffenheim, their longest run against a team currently in the division.
Monchengladbach head into this game after losing 2-1 in a friendly against Ukraine, the latter's first match since Russia invaded the country in February. Over €600,000 was raised from the game and all profits will be donated to charities to support Ukrainian people.
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Just a few months ago, Hoffenheim were in the hunt for a top-four finish, but a disappointing run of seven games without a win has seen them slip down the table and out of contention to qualify for Europe altogether.
Defensive frailties have been a key factor to Die Kraichgauer's dip in form, as they have conceded 10 goals in their last three matches, including the 4-3 home defeat to Freiburg and the 4-2 loss at home to Bayer Leverkusen last weekend.
Sebastian Hoeness's side are guaranteed to better last season's 11th-placed finish as they currently sit eighth in the table, four points ahead of Bochum in 11th spot.
Hoffenheim have only won five of their 16 away games in the top flight this season, but they have claimed seven points from their last nine available against Monchengladbach, including the 1-1 draw in the reverse fixture five months ago.
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Team News
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Monchengladbach boss Hutter has revealed that Tony Jantschke underwent knee surgery at the beginning of the week and is set to return to first-team training in time for pre-season.
Marcus Thuram has recovered from a hamstring injury and could feature this weekend, though he will not be fit enough to start the match, while Jordan Beyer is doubtful due to a hip problem which will be assessed ahead of kickoff.
Nico Elvedi is suspended but Kouadio Kone is available to return from a one-match ban and could be handed a start in centre-midfield alongside Florian Neuhaus.
As for Hoffenheim, defenders Chris Richards, Havard Nordtveit (both tendon) and Benjamin Hubner (back) are all ruled out through injury and are joined on the treatment table by midfielders Marco John (shoulder) and Florian Grillitsch (muscle).
Munas Dabbur is suspended after picking up his fifth yellow card of the season last time out, while Hoeness has revealed that Ihlas Bebou and Georginio Rutter are both doubtful and will be assessed ahead of kickoff.
Kevin Akpoguma, who scored in the 1-1 draw against Monchengladbach in December, will be hoping to force his way into the first XI at either centre-back or right-back.
Borussia Monchengladbach possible starting lineup:
Sommer; Beyer, Friedrich, Bensebaini; Lainer, Kone, Neuhaus, Netz; Plea, Stindl; Embolo
Hoffenheim possible starting lineup:
Baumann; Akpoguma, Vogt, Posch; Kaderabek, Samassekou, Stiller, Raum; Skov, Kramaric, Rutter
We say: Borussia Monchengladbach 2-1 Hoffenheim
There has been little to separate these two sides in recent years as five of their last eight Bundesliga encounters have ended as a draw.
Considering the form of both teams heading into Saturday's game, we can see the hosts edging a closely-fought contest.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Monchengladbach win with a probability of 46.58%. A win for Hoffenheim had a probability of 31.2% and a draw had a probability of 22.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Monchengladbach win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.25%) and 2-0 (5.91%). The likeliest Hoffenheim win was 1-2 (7.21%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.49%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Borussia Monchengladbach would win this match.
Top tip
Oliver Thomas
