Brasileiro | Gameweek 37
Dec 5, 2021 at 7pm UK
Estadio de Pituacu
Bahia2 - 0Fluminense
We said: Bahia 1-1 Fluminense
Fluminense are not a great road side, losing four straight matches by a single goal, but they did win this exact fixture last year against them, and they have usually been able to answer a defeat by picking up at least a point in their next fixture. Bahia have conceded the second-most goals in the league (49), so we expect Flu to have at least a few scoring opportunities, although they should be able to earn a result given the precision of Gilberto in attack, who is capable of making his chances count. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bahia win with a probability of 46.56%. A win for Fluminense had a probability of 27.31% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bahia win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.13%) and 2-0 (8.59%). The likeliest Fluminense win was 0-1 (8.44%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.4%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Bahia would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Bahia | Draw | Fluminense |
| 46.56% | 26.12% | 27.31% |
| Both teams to score 50.39% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
