Brasileiro | Gameweek 38
Dec 10, 2021 at 12.30am UK
Castelao
Fortaleza2 - 1Bahia
We said: Fortaleza 1-1 Bahia
The visitors have more to play for against their hosts who boast a significantly better squad on paper. We fancy a share of the spoils with the points split at the end of the 90 minutes. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fortaleza win with a probability of 48.1%. A draw had a probability of 27.8% and a win for Bahia had a probability of 24.05%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fortaleza win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.93%) and 2-1 (8.63%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.74%), while for a Bahia win it was 0-1 (9.41%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Fortaleza would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Fortaleza | Draw | Bahia |
| 48.1% | 27.85% | 24.05% |
| Both teams to score 43.06% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
