Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fortaleza win with a probability of 46.44%. A draw had a probability of 28.1% and a win for Coritiba had a probability of 25.45%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fortaleza win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.47%) and 2-1 (8.53%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.89%), while for a Coritiba win it was 0-1 (9.75%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Fortaleza would win this match.