Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vasco da Gama win with a probability of 48.07%. A draw had a probability of 27.5% and a win for Coritiba had a probability of 24.46%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vasco da Gama win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.75%) and 2-1 (8.77%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.7%), while for a Coritiba win it was 0-1 (9.2%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood.