Bristol City play host to Millwall on Sunday afternoon looking to end a run of three matches without a win in the Championship.
While the Robins currently sit in 18th position in the standings, Millwall have recently moved back into the top half with two victories from three games.
Match preview
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After defeating Derby County at the beginning of December, Nigel Pearson must have felt that his side were finally improving, with that result making it seven points from four matches.
However, all that the Robins have to show from a triple-header with Hull City, Huddersfield Town and Queens Park Rangers is a comeback draw in the first of those matches.
Bristol City have let early leads slip in the following two home games, conceding yet another late goal at Ashton Gate to fall to a demoralising defeat versus QPR.
Such has been the regularity of their capitulations that it can no longer be passed off as a coincidence, and Pearson now faces a real fight to retain his job.
As well as winning just three of their last 13 matches, Bristol City have not recorded back-to-back victories in the Championship since the end of February.
There have been times this season when Gary Rowett may have had concerns about his own position at The Den, with Millwall having recently posted just two wins from eight games.
Nevertheless, the 1-0 victory at Coventry City earlier this week, a result earned after an 18-day break, has left Millwall in 11th position with matches in hand on some of the clubs above them.
Although they remain six points adrift of the playoff spots, this is a partially-refreshed group of players who will feel that they can start to build momentum in the opening weeks of 2022.
Tom Bradshaw netted the decisive goal at the Sky Blues, the Welshman extending his scoring streak to four games and taking his tally for the season to six from 13 appearances.
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Team News
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Pearson will be without midfielder Andy King, who sits out this contest through suspension after collecting two yellow cards against QPR.
George Tanner will also be absent due to injury, with Rob Atkinson and Han-Noah Massengo both in line to earn recalls to the Bristol City starting lineup.
Having switched to a back four in the last game, Pearson will also give consideration to reverting to a three, while Chris Martin could return in attack.
There will be fewer changes in the Millwall XI on the back of their terrific win at Coventry.
While former Bristol City forward Benik Afobe may potentially replace Mason Bennett, the rest of the side could stay the same.
Bristol City possible starting lineup:
O'Leary; Vyner, Kalas, Atkinson, Pring; Massengo, James; Weimann, Scott, O'Dowda; Semenyo
Millwall possible starting lineup:
Bialkowski; Hutchinson, Pearce, Cooper; McNamara, Mitchell, Saville, Wallace; Ojo; Bradshaw, Afobe
We say: Bristol City 1-2 Millwall
Given Bristol City's track record at Ashton Gate, it is becoming increasingly difficult to back them to collect three points. The same applies to this game, and we expect Millwall to edge a close contest with a goal in the closing stages.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Millwall win with a probability of 44.91%. A draw had a probability of 28.7% and a win for Bristol City had a probability of 26.38%.
The most likely scoreline for a Millwall win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.2%) and 1-2 (8.29%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.05%), while for a Bristol City win it was 1-0 (10.28%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood.
