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Preview: Miami Open: Novak Djokovic vs. Grigor Dimitrov - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

Sports Mole previews Friday's Miami Open semi-final between Novak Djokovic and Grigor Dimitrov, including predictions, head-to-head and their tournament so far.

Fresh off becoming the oldest Masters semi-finalist on the ATP Tour, six-time Miami Open champion Novak Djokovic faces a fatigued Grigor Dimitrov, aiming to return to the title match for the first time since 2016.

To achieve this, the Serbian, unbeaten in previous last-four contests at the Florida-based event, must navigate his 14th meeting with last year's runner-up unscathed.


Match preview

Novak Djokovic reacts at the Miami Open on March 25, 2025© Iconsport

Another vintage Djokovic performance on Thursday saw the 99-time ATP champion avoid stumbling against Sebastian Korda, ousting the Florida resident 6-3, 7-6(4) in one hour and 22 minutes.

Despite the match being rescheduled about 24 hours after its initial time due to Wednesday's postponement, the six-time Miami champion raced through the opening set and fought back from 4-1 and 5-2 down in the second to force a tiebreaker and avoid a deciding set by winning the shootout.

Defeating Korda means Djokovic enters Friday's semi-final as the oldest player (37 years and 10 months) to participate in such events, surpassing Roger Federer, who was 37 years and seven months when he reached the last four in Miami six years ago, highlighting the Serbian's longevity and consistency.

In his 79th Masters semi-final and eighth in Miami, the Belgrade native, who holds an 11-4 record this season, aims for his first title match at tour level since reaching the final in Shanghai last October.

Given his impressive 48-7 record in Miami and a commanding dominance over Dimitrov, the Serbian is confident about returning to the final in Florida.

Grigor Dimitrov reacts at the Miami Open on March 26, 2025© Iconsport

Standing in his way is Dimitrov, who is trying to overcome physical challenges to return to the title match for consecutive years.

The 33-year-old was visibly compromised physically in his quarter-final against Francisco Cerundolo, coming through 6-7(6), 6-4, 7-6(3) in two hours and 48 minutes.

That result marked the former world No. 3's second match exceeding two hours in Miami, with the world No. 15's third-round meeting against Karen Khachanov lasting two hours and 37 minutes.

All that time on court is significantly more than Djokovic, who has barely broken a sweat en route to the semis, putting Dimitrov at a disadvantage against his nemesis on the men's tour.

Only against Rafael Nadal, to whom he has suffered 14 losses, has the 33-year-old Bulgarian lost more than to Djokovic (12), emphasising the uphill task ahead for the nine-time ATP champion, who seeks only his second victory over the Serb to contend for his 10th tour-level crown and second at ATP 1000 events.


Tournament so far

Novak Djokovic:

First round: Bye
Second round: vs. Rinky Hijikata 6-0 7-6[1]
Third round: vs. Camilo Ugo Carabelli 6-1 7-6[1]
Round of 16: vs. Lorenzo Musetti 6-2 6-2
Quarter-final: vs. Sebastian Korda 6-3 7-6(6)

Grigor Dimitrov:

First round: Bye
Second round: vs. Federico Cina 6-1 6-4
Third round: vs. Karen Khachanov 6-7[3] 6-4 7-5
Round of 16: vs. Brandon Nakashima 6-4 7-5
Quarter-final: vs. Francisco Cerundolo 6-7[6] 6-4 7-6[3]


Head To Head

Paris Masters (2023) - Final: Djokovic 6-4 6-3

Rome Masters (2023) - Round of 32: Djokovic 6-3 4-6 6-1

Australian Open (2023) - Third round: Djokovic 7-6(7) 6-3 6-4

Paris Masters (2019) - Semi-final: Djokovic 7-6(5) 6-4

Cincinnati Masters (2018) - Round of 16: Djokovic 2-6 6-3 6-4

Queen's Club (2018) - Round of 16: Djokovic 6-4 6-1

Paris Masters (2016) - Round of 16: Djokovic 4-6 6-2 6-3

Beijing (2014) - Quarter-final: Djokovic 6-2 6-4

Wimbledon (2014) - Semi-final: Djokovic 6-4 3-6 7-6(2) 7-6(7)

French Open (2013) - Third round: Djokovic 6-2 6-2 6-3

Madrid Masters (2013) - Round of 32: Dimitrov 7-6(6) 6-7(8) 6-3

Indian Wells (2013) - Round of 32: Djokovic 7-6(4) 6-1

Shanghai Masters (2012) - Round of 32: Djokovic 6-3 6-2

Djokovic has dominated this match-up, winning 12 of their 13 meetings, and the 99-time titlist aims for an 11th consecutive victory over Dimitrov.

The Bulgarian holds a 20-34 semi-final record on the ATP Tour (3-8 at Masters level), which is significantly inferior to the Serb's 140-51 tour-level results in last-four contests and 58-19 at ATP 1000 tournaments.

The six-time Miami Open champion enters Friday's match with a 5-1 record in his last six Masters semi-finals, losing only to Casper Ruud in Monte Carlo last year.


SM words green background

We say: Djokovic to win in two sets

Djokovic has never lost in a Miami semi-final, and that six-match winning streak (Kei Nishikori withdrew before 2014's semi) is likely to continue against an opponent who appeared fatigued in the quarter-finals.

Fresher than Dimitrov and driven to clinch his 100th title, the Serbian superstar is poised to secure a spot in Sunday's championship match against Jakub Mensik or Taylor Fritz.

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Written by
Anthony Brown

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