For the first time in the CONCACAF Nations League, Canada and Mexico will face each other, with a spot in the final at stake on Thursday at SoFi Stadium.
The Canadians managed to get past Suriname in the previous phase, winning that tie 4-0 on aggregate, while El Tri erased a two-goal deficit in their tie with Honduras by winning the second leg 4-0.
Match preview
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For a second successive occasion in the Nations League, Canada had a one-goal advantage heading into their second-leg quarter-final match this season, but this time they held strong at home, defeating Suriname 3-0.
Under Jesse Marsch, this side have pulled off some big achievements, including a fourth place finish at the 2024 Copa America in their first-ever appearance at that tournament.
Since that competition concluded, this team have only got better, going unbeaten in their last five international encounters, four of which were victories.
Thursday will mark the second time in the last three editions of the Nations League that Les Rouges feature in the semi-finals, defeating Panama 2-0 in their only previous appearance at this stage in 2023.
Canada's previous six matches against CONCACAF opponents ended in a victory for the Canucks, with their previous defeat versus this region occurring in the Nations League quarter-finals last season against Jamaica (3-2).
They have lost just one of their last seven matches played on American soil, suffering a 2-0 defeat versus Argentina in the 2024 Copa America semi-finals in a match which took place at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey.
The Canucks are unbeaten in their last three matches played against Mexico, coming away with a 0-0 draw the previous time they met in a September friendly in Arlington, Texas.
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The quarter-finals tie between Honduras and Mexico last November had to feel like déjà vu, with the Mexicans losing the first leg 2-0 but advancing from that tie for a second consecutive season.
That victory in leg two was El Tri's biggest since matchday one of the 2023 CONCACAF Gold Cup, when they defeated the Hondurans by a 4-0 score.
In his third stint as the Mexican coach, Javier Aguirre has been able to steady this team defensively, with Mexico posting five clean sheets in his seven matches in charge.
This team have only lost one of their previous six semi-final fixtures at a CONCACAF tournament, with the USA knocking them out at this stage of the 2022-23 Nations League (3-0).
Since losing the 2021 Nations League final to the US in extra time (3-2), El Tri have won their last six matches in this competition when drawing first blood.
El Tri are undefeated in their last two meetings against North American opposition, without a single goal conceded in either of those games.
Mexico have won their last three matches versus Canada in CONCACAF competitions, including a 2-1 semi-final triumph at the 2021 Gold Cup.
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Team News
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Canada will be missing Richie Laryea for this match because of a hamstring strain, with Zorhan Bassong being called up this week as a replacement.
Three Canadians will be seeking their first international caps on Thursday including Promise David from Belgian side Union SG, Bournemouth's Daniel Jebbison and Brighton and Hove Albion goalkeeper Tom McGill.
Alphonso Davies can surpass Ali Gerba and draw even with Alex Bunbury for ninth in all-time goals with his next one for Canada, while Jonathan Osorio will move into a tie with Paul Stalteri for third in all-time caps for Les Rouges should he feature in their next two Nations League fixtures.
In their second-leg victory over Suriname, Jonathan David became the all-time top goalscorer for the men's team, netting his 31st for the Canucks, one more than Cyle Larin, with Jacob Shaffelburg notching a brace, putting him at six with the national team.
Former Chivas and Mexican national team forward Jose Juan Macias retired from football last month at the young age of 25 after suffering a series of injuries.
Only two players selected for this match have yet to earn an appearance with El Tri, Club America's Ramon Juarez and goalkeeper Carlos Moreno from the reigning CONCACAF Champions Cup winners, Pachuca.
In their victory over Honduras last November Jesus Gallardo reached the century mark for caps with the national team, and by the time the tournament concludes this weekend Roberto Alvarado can get to 50 appearances, with the Chivas striker currently on 48.
Henry Martin notched a brace to help them reverse their tie against the Hondurans, while Jorge Sanchez and Raul Jimenez netted the other goals, and the Fulham striker can surpass Luis Hernandez for fourth in all-time goals with his next strike.
Canada possible starting lineup:
St. Clair; Johnston, Bombito, Cornelius, Davies; Osorio; Buchanan, Eustaquio, Shaffelburg; David, Larin
Mexico possible starting lineup:
Malagon; Huescas, Montes, Vasquez, Gallardo; Ed. Alvarez, Rodriguez; Ef. Alvarez, Romo, Vega; Jimenez
We say: Canada 2-0 Mexico
The Canadians should be fairly confident coming into this match, having fared well against many elite nations over the past year, and we believe their individual quality in the attacking third will ultimately make the difference.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Joel Lefevre
