MX23RW : Wednesday, March 19 02:50:32| >> :60:1029:1029:
Canada national football team
CONCACAF Nations League | Semi-Finals
Mar 21, 2025 at 2.30am UK
Masafi Stadium
Mexico national football team

Canada
vs.
Mexico

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's CONCACAF Nations League clash between Canada and Mexico, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Canada

All competitions
CONCACAF Nations League
Last Game: Canada 3-0 Suriname
Wednesday, November 20 at 12.30am in CONCACAF Nations League
Current Group A Standings P GD PTS
1Argentina359
2Canada3-14
3Chile3-12
4Peru3-31

Mexico

All competitions
CONCACAF Nations League
Last Game: Mexico 4-0 Honduras
Wednesday, November 20 at 2.30am in CONCACAF Nations League

We say: Canada 2-0 Mexico

 The Canadians should be fairly confident coming into this match, having fared well against many elite nations over the past year and we believe their individual quality in the attacking third will ultimately make the difference. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Canada win with a probability of 46.35%. A win for Mexico has a probability of 28.73% and a draw has a probability of 24.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Canada win is 1-0 with a probability of 9.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-1 (9.3%) and 2-0 (7.83%). The likeliest Mexico win is 0-1 (7.48%), while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (11.79%).

Result
CanadaDrawMexico
46.35% (0.443 0.44) 24.91% (0.145 0.15) 28.73% (-0.589 -0.59)
Both teams to score 55.19% (-0.858 -0.86)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
52.25% (-0.95500000000001 -0.96)47.74% (0.956 0.96)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
30.06% (-0.886 -0.89)69.93% (0.88799999999999 0.89)
Canada Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
79.35% (-0.19500000000001 -0.2)20.64% (0.196 0.2)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
46.78% (-0.312 -0.31)53.21% (0.313 0.31)
Mexico Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
69.54% (-0.91 -0.91)30.45% (0.91 0.91)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
33.34% (-1.094 -1.09)66.66% (1.095 1.1)
Score Analysis
    Canada 46.35%
    Mexico 28.73%
    Draw 24.91%
CanadaDrawMexico
1-0 @ 9.92% (0.331 0.33)
2-1 @ 9.3% (0.024000000000001 0.02)
2-0 @ 7.83% (0.214 0.21)
3-1 @ 4.89% (-0.017 -0.02)
3-0 @ 4.12% (0.088 0.09)
3-2 @ 2.91% (-0.084 -0.08)
4-1 @ 1.93% (-0.019 -0.02)
4-0 @ 1.62% (0.025 0.02)
4-2 @ 1.15% (-0.041 -0.04)
Other @ 2.69%
Total : 46.35%
1-1 @ 11.79% (0.1 0.1)
0-0 @ 6.29% (0.246 0.25)
2-2 @ 5.53% (-0.126 -0.13)
3-3 @ 1.15% (-0.063 -0.06)
Other @ 0.15%
Total : 24.91%
0-1 @ 7.48% (0.11 0.11)
1-2 @ 7.01% (-0.116 -0.12)
0-2 @ 4.44% (-0.047000000000001 -0.05)
1-3 @ 2.78% (-0.118 -0.12)
2-3 @ 2.19% (-0.107 -0.11)
0-3 @ 1.76% (-0.064 -0.06)
Other @ 3.07%
Total : 28.73%

Who will win Friday's CONCACAF Nations League clash between Canada and Mexico?

Canada
Draw
Mexico
Canada
44.4%
Draw
11.1%
Mexico
44.4%
18
Head to Head
Sep 11, 2024 2am
Friendlies 1
Mexico
0-0
Canada
Araujo (18'), Huerta (26'), Mozo (69')
Choiniere (57'), Laryea (65'), Sigur (88')
> Preview
Nov 17, 2021 2.05am
Third Round
Canada
2-1
Mexico
Henry (13')
Lozano (14'), Araujo (90+8')
> Preview
Oct 8, 2021 2.40am
Third Round
Mexico
1-1
Canada
> Preview
Jul 30, 2021 3am
Semi-Finals
Mexico
2-1
Canada
Pineda (45+2' pen.), Herrera (90+9')
Gutierrez (68'), Gallardo (79')
Buchanan (57')
Henry (45'), Buchanan (49'), Hoilett (49'), Crepeau (90+12')
> Preview
Jun 20, 2019 3.30am
Group Stage
Mexico
3-1
Canada
Alvarado (40'), Guardado (54', 77')
Cavallini (75')
Kaye (79')
rhs 2.0
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