Championship

[monks data]

Championship | Gameweek 44

Jul 14, 2020 at 7.45pm UK

Cardiff City Stadium

Cardiff
2 - 1
Derby

Hoilett (17'), Tomlin (59')
Hoilett (62')

FT(HT: 1-1)

Knight (30')

Preview: Cardiff City vs. Derby County - prediction, team news, lineups

By Daniel Lewis, Senior Reporter | 12 July 2020

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Championship clash between promotion-chasing rivals Cardiff City and Derby County, including team news and predicted lineups.

Promotion-chasing rivals Cardiff City and Derby County face off in a huge match at the top end of the Championship on Tuesday evening.

Cardiff have lost back-to-back games but are still in possession of the final playoff spot, three points better off than 10th-placed opponents Derby.

Match preview

Cardiff's Nathaniel Mendez-Laing celebrates scoring against Preston on June 27, 2020 © Reuters

Since taking 10 points from the first 12 on offer after returning to action last month, Cardiff have since lost 3-2 at home to Blackburn Rovers and 2-0 away at Fulham.

However, the sides around them have failed to capitalise - Derby among them - and the Bluebirds' promotion fate is still in their own hands with three games to go.

This is the toughest of those three remaining fixtures, the other two being against lowly Middlesbrough and Hull City, although those two sides still have plenty to play for.

Three points on Tuesday would not only strengthen City's grip on the top six but also kill off Derby's own playoff hopes, with the Rams likely needing three wins from three.

Phillip Cocu's men won four games on the spin either side of the lockdown, before drawing with rivals Nottingham Forest and losing against Brentford and West Bromwich Albion.

Derby County manager Phillip Cocu pictured © Reuters

It leaves them 10th in the division and three points off the top six ahead of games with Cardiff, Leeds United and Birmingham City.

This trip to Cardiff may seem fairly daunting on the face of it, but the Bluebirds have a pretty poor record at home under Neil Harris, winning just two of their last 11 there.

Derby won three away games on the spin prior to their loss against West Brom last time out, meanwhile, though their overall away record this term is among the worst in the league.

County have won just one of their last four encounters with Cardiff - a 3-1 home victory last season - with this term's reverse fixture finishing all square at Pride Park.

With seven teams separated by just four points in the race for sixth, a repeat of that scoreline on Tuesday would not suit either of these sides.

Cardiff City's Championship form: WWDWLL

Derby County's Championship form: WWWDLL

Team News

Lee Tomlin celebrates scoring for Cardiff on February 8, 2020 © Reuters

Harris made a couple of changes between the defeats to Blackburn and Fulham by bringing in Callum Paterson and Nathaniel Mendez-Laing.

Robert Glatzel has been in good form since the restart and should return on Tuesday, however, while Josh Murphy will also be feeling refreshed and ready to go.

Calls for Lee Tomlin to start for the first time since February have only grown following his impressive cameos from the bench, and Harris has hinted that the midfielder is ready to play from the off.

As for Derby, Ben Hamer has come under increasing pressure after making another error in the 3-1 loss to Brentford on Saturday, though Cocu is expected to stick with his number one.

Craig Forsyth and Max Lowe have alternated at left-back, with the latter being given the nod last time out, which should remain the case on Tuesday.

Tom Lawrence returned from suspension last time out and is expected to start again out on the left, with the influential Wayne Rooney positioned in a deeper central position.

Cardiff City possible starting lineup:
Smithies; Sanderson, Morrison, Nelson, Bennett; Bacuna, Ralls; Mendez-Laing, Tomlin, Murphy; Glatzel

Derby County possible starting lineup:
Hamer; Bogle, Evans, Clarke, Lowe; Rooney, Bird; Knight, Sibley, Lawrence; Martin

We say: Cardiff City 1-1 Derby County

Both teams enter this match on the back of successive defeats and will be targeting all three points in South Wales. Only Millwall have drawn more games than Cardiff and Derby this term, and we can see the points being shared in midweek.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cardiff City win with a probability of 41.11%. A win for Derby County had a probability of 32.25% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Cardiff City win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.62%) and 2-0 (7.34%). The likeliest Derby County win was 0-1 (9.3%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.66%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Cardiff City would win this match.