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Champions League header

Champions League
Atletico Madrid logo
Champions League | Round of 16 | 2nd Leg
Mar 12, 2025 at 8pm UK
Estadio Civitas Metropolitano
Real Madrid logo

Atletico
vs.
Real Madrid

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Champions League clash between Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Predicted Lineups

Sports Mole looks at how Atletico Madrid could line up in the second leg of their Champions League last 16 tie against city rivals Real Madrid on Wednesday.

Injuries & Suspensions

Sports Mole looks at Real Madrid's injury and suspension news ahead of their Champions League last 16 second leg away to city rivals Atletico Madrid.

Form, Standings, Stats

Atletico Madrid

All competitions
Champions League
Last Game: Getafe 2-1 Atletico
Sunday, March 9 at 1pm in La Liga

Real Madrid

All competitions
Champions League
Last Game: Real Madrid 2-1 Rayo Vallecano
Sunday, March 9 at 3.15pm in La Liga

We say: Atletico Madrid 1-1 Real Madrid

 Real Madrid have won every previous European tie against Atletico, also finding a way to get over the line in two Champions League finals against their local rivals, and they are the favourites to do so again. The advantage is not as healthy as Ancelotti would have liked, and they are likely going to suffer greatly at some point during the evening, but Los Blancos so often find a way. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 39%. A win for Real Madrid has a probability of 35.53% and a draw has a probability of 25.5%.

The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win is 1-0 with a probability of 8.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-1 (8.54%) and 2-0 (6.36%). The likeliest Real Madrid win is 0-1 (8.5%), while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (12.04%).

Result
Atletico MadridDrawReal Madrid
39% (-0.079000000000001 -0.08) 25.47% (-0.004999999999999 -0) 35.53% (0.085999999999999 0.09)
Both teams to score 55.97% (0.028999999999996 0.03)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
52.09% (0.030999999999999 0.03)47.91% (-0.030000000000001 -0.03)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
29.91% (0.027000000000001 0.03)70.09% (-0.028000000000006 -0.03)
Atletico Madrid Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
75.78% (-0.025999999999996 -0.03)24.22% (0.027000000000001 0.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
41.43% (-0.039000000000001 -0.04)58.57% (0.037999999999997 0.04)
Real Madrid Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
73.87% (0.063999999999993 0.06)26.14% (-0.062000000000001 -0.06)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
38.79% (0.084999999999994 0.08)61.21% (-0.083999999999996 -0.08)
Score Analysis
    Atletico Madrid 39%
    Real Madrid 35.53%
    Draw 25.47%
Atletico MadridDrawReal Madrid
1-0 @ 8.98% (-0.017999999999999 -0.02)
2-1 @ 8.54% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
2-0 @ 6.36% (-0.018 -0.02)
3-1 @ 4.04% (-0.0070000000000006 -0.01)
3-0 @ 3.01% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
3-2 @ 2.71%
4-1 @ 1.43% (-0.004 -0)
4-0 @ 1.07% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
4-2 @ 0.96% (-0.001 -0)
Other @ 1.91%
Total : 39%
1-1 @ 12.04%
0-0 @ 6.33% (-0.008 -0.01)
2-2 @ 5.73% (0.0040000000000004 0)
3-3 @ 1.21% (0.002 0)
Other @ 0.16%
Total : 25.47%
0-1 @ 8.5% (0.0050000000000008 0.01)
1-2 @ 8.08% (0.011999999999999 0.01)
0-2 @ 5.7% (0.013 0.01)
1-3 @ 3.62% (0.012 0.01)
2-3 @ 2.56% (0.0070000000000001 0.01)
0-3 @ 2.55% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
1-4 @ 1.21% (0.0070000000000001 0.01)
Other @ 3.31%
Total : 35.53%

Who will win Wednesday's Champions League clash between Atletico and Real Madrid?

Atletico Madrid
Draw
Real Madrid
Atletico Madrid
29.4%
Draw
14.7%
Real Madrid
55.9%
34
Head to Head
Mar 4, 2025 8pm
Round of 16 1st Leg
Real Madrid
2-1
Atletico
Rodrygo (4'), Diaz (55')
Diaz (55')
Alvarez (32')
> Match Report
Feb 8, 2025 8pm
Gameweek 23
Real Madrid
1-1
Atletico
Mbappe (50')
Ceballos (25')
Alvarez (35' pen.)
Lenglet (45+4'), Galan (49'), Sorloth (90+2')
> Match Report
Sep 29, 2024 8pm
Gameweek 8
Atletico
1-1
Real Madrid
Correa (90+6')
Le Normand (63'), Gallagher (70'), Alvarez (75')
Llorente (90+9')
Militao (64')
Modric (40')
> Match Report
Feb 4, 2024 8pm
Gameweek 23
Real Madrid
1-1
Atletico
Diaz (20')
Llorente (90+3')
Niguez (37'), Hermoso (38'), Barrios (85'), Depay (90+5')
> Match Report
Jan 18, 2024 8.30pm
Round of 16
Atletico
4-2
Real Madrid
Lino (39'), Morata (57'), Griezmann (100'), Riquelme (119')
Morata (58'), Hermoso (68'), De Paul (78'), Koke (80'), Simeone (83'), Griezmann (101'), Witsel (113')
Oblak (45+1' og.), Joselu (82')
Junior (45'), Camavinga (56'), Diaz (68'), Tchouameni (85'), Bellingham (87'), Carvajal (89')
> Preview
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