The Bluebirds lost 1-0 to Coventry City on Wednesday to make it one win in eight, while Luton played out a third successive draw in midweek and remain in the top half.

Match preview

Cardiff manager Neil Harris licks his lips on February 15, 2020 © Reuters

"Disappointment" was a word used on three occasions by Harris when reflecting on Cardiff's defeat to lowly Coventry, with the Bluebirds producing another terrible display.

Tyler Walker profited from a mix-up at the back for the only goal of the game as Coventry picked up a deserved victory at St Andrew's.

Since appearing to turn their season around with a vital 3-0 win over Barnsley at the start of the month, Cardiff have now taken one point from the last nine on offer.

That includes losses to Coventry and Severnside rivals Bristol City without scoring, either side of a 1-1 draw away at Harris's former club Millwall.

Another setback for the Bluebirds this weekend and the club hierarchy may well decide to bring Harris's year-long tenure to an end.

Matty Pearson celebrates scoring for Luton Town against Birmingham in the Championship on November 24, 2020 © Reuters

Luton head to the Welsh capital seeking a first win in four, having drawn their last three matches by the same 1-1 scoreline.

The most recent of those draws was against Birmingham City on Tuesday as Matty Pearson's first-half strike was cancelled out by Lukas Jutkiewicz.

Town boss Nathan Jones "had no doubt" that his side deserved to win, with Neil Etheridge producing a number of fine saves, though Ivan Sunjic did miss a one-on-one at the death.

The Hatters now embark on back-to-back away games in Wales and will be looking to build on an impressive record on their travels.

They have lost just two of their last 16 away league games under Blaenrhondda-born coach Jones, keeping nine clean sheets, and no Championship side has picked up more away wins post-lockdown in June.

Cardiff City Championship form: DLWLDL

Luton Town Championship form: DLWDDD

Team News

Luton Town's James Collins celebrates scoring against Rotherham United on November 4, 2020 © Reuters

Josh Murphy returned to Cardiff's starting lineup for their only change against Coventry, but he failed to make much of an impression and may be replaced here.

Harris has experimented with two up top at times this term and, in a game his side have to win, it might be a case of pairing Robert Glatzel with Kieffer Moore up top.

Joe Ralls was at fault for Coventry's winner, while Marlon Pack has hardly filled himself with glory of late, so Will Vaulks will be hopeful of a recall.

In terms of the visitors, Jones may stick with the same XI that played against Birmingham in midweek, though George Moncur and Jordan Clark are pushing for inclusion.

Dan Potts, Brendan Galloway and Eunan O'Kane will play no part at the Cardiff City Stadium due to injury.

Cardiff City possible starting lineup:
Smithies; Bacuna, Morrison, Nelson, Bennett; Vaulks, Pack, Harris; Wilson; Moore, Glatzel

Luton Town possible starting lineup:
Sluga; Pearson, Bradley, Rea, Norrington-Davies; Berry, Dewsbury-Hall, Mpanzu; Cornick, Collins, Lee

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We say: Cardiff City 0-1 Luton Town

Cardiff are unbeaten in five league meetings with Luton since 2005 and have won their last two home encounters.

The Hatters enter this game in better form, though, and they have tended to perform better on their travels than at home, so we are going with a narrow away win.

Top betting tip

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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cardiff City win with a probability of 43.56%. A draw had a probability of 28.7% and a win for Luton Town had a probability of 27.76%.

The most likely scoreline for a Cardiff City win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.77%) and 2-1 (8.25%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.13%), while for a Luton Town win it was 0-1 (10.45%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Cardiff City would win this match.