Fourth-placed Fenerbahce host the Turkish Super Lig's bottom side Caykur Rizespor on Sunday, with the away side aiming to record back-to-back wins in the league for the first time this season.
The home team are already 12 points behind leaders Trabzonspor, but three points this weekend could see Vitor Pereira's side climb into a Champions League qualification spot.
Match preview
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Fenerbahce experienced disappointment last week in the Europa League as a 1-0 defeat against Olympiacos meant that the Turkish outfit cannot progress out of Group D into the knockout rounds.
They followed that up with another unpleasing result in the Super Lig last time out, when Pereira's side could only manage a 1-1 draw against 18th-placed Goztepe and created very few chances in Izmir.
The Istanbul-based side have not scored as many goals as the teams above them in the table but they have managed to get on the scoresheet in each of their last nine league games regardless of the final score.
That suggests that the hosts will have a successful time in front of goal on Sunday, when they come up against the worst defensive record in the division so far.
Fenerbahce will also be confident as they have won 12 of the last 15 meetings between these two sides, with Caykur Rizespor only tasting victory once in that time way back in 2018.
Rizespor enter Sunday's clash on the back of defeat in the Turkish Cup against third-tier side Ankaraspor, who sealed an unlikely 1-0 win against the top-flight team.
However, Hamza Hamzaoglu's side will focus on taking the positives from their third win of the league campaign last weekend, when Selim Ay sealed a 1-0 victory over Kayserispor.
After only keeping one clean sheet in their opening 11 matches this season, Rizespor goalkeeper Gokhan Akkan has now kept two clean sheets in his last three league games, perhaps a sign of some defensive improvement for the 20th-placed side.
Hamzaoglu's side have lost all seven of their away games this season, only scoring four times while conceding 19 goals on their travels, which does not bode well for Rizespor's hopes this weekend.
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Team News
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Fenerbahce's number two goalkeeper Berke Ozer will continue between the posts on Sunday as first-choice keeper Altay Bayindir remains sidelined due to a shoulder injury.
Enner Valencia is nearing a return to action after picking up an ankle injury early last month, but Sunday's encounter is likely to have come a little bit too early for the attacker to feature again.
Defender Filip Novak is suspended for this game after seeing two yellow cards last time out, while centre-back Marcel Tisserand is likely to return to the starting 11 after serving his one-match suspension against Goztepe.
Rizespor's Ronaldo Mendes has not featured for the side since August and he has been joined by Gokhan Gonul in the physio room with both of them set to be absent from this weekend's matchday squad.
After victory last time out in the league against Kayserispor, Hamzaoglu could name the same starting 11 which would see Finland international Joel Pohjanpalo lead the line for the visitors.
Fenerbahce possible starting lineup:
Ozer; Szalai, Kim, Tisserand, Kadioglu; Crespo, Meyer; Ozil, Zajc, Kahveci; Dursun
Caykur Rizespor possible starting lineup:
Akkan; Sertel, Holmen, Ay, Baiano; Djokovic, Sabo; Boyd, Boldrin, Umar; Pohjanpalo
We say: Fenerbahce 2-0 Caykur Rizespor
Rizespor's recent form has followed a pattern of one win followed by a defeat, and carrying on that record Rizespor are set for defeat this weekend after victory in the league last time out.
Fenerbahce need to secure three points against the 20th-placed side if they want to continue to push for Champions League places and after a disappointing draw last time out, there is likely to be extra motivation for the home team.
Top tip
Sammy Wynne
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fenerbahce win with a probability of 77.47%. A draw had a probability of 14.4% and a win for Caykur Rizespor had a probability of 8.16%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fenerbahce win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (10.5%) and 1-0 (9.33%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.8%), while for a Caykur Rizespor win it was 0-1 (2.62%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Fenerbahce would win this match.
