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Champions League | First Qualifying Round | 2nd Leg
Jul 16, 2024 at 5pm UK
Bolt Arena

HJK Helsinki
1 - 1
Panevezys

Erwin (38')
Hostikka (9'), Halme (15'), Keskinen (77'), Korkeakunnas (79')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Veliulis (45')
Rasimavicius (64')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Champions League clash between HJK Helsinki and Panevezys, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Panevezys 3-0 HJK Helsinki
Tuesday, July 9 at 4.30pm in Champions League
Last Game: Panevezys 3-0 HJK Helsinki
Tuesday, July 9 at 4.30pm in Champions League
TeamGoals scoredAvg per gameTop scorer
1Ilves332.06Haarala
2HJK Helsinki281.75Plange
3Inter Turku281.75Smith
4KuPS271.80Luyeye-Lutumba
5Haka261.73Patoulidis
6SJK261.73Moreno
7VPS251.67Borchers
8Oulu221.47Coffey
9Gnistan191.27Latonen
10EIF161.07Kaufmann
11Mariehamn161.14Larsson
12Lahti140.93Ivanovic

We said: HJK Helsinki 2-1 Panevezys (Panevezys win 4-2 on aggregate)

HJK will fancy their chances of winning on Tuesday, but it is very difficult to imagine them having enough to overturn the three-goal first-leg defeat. As a result, we are backing HJK to triumph, but Panevezys should head into the second qualifying round of the Champions League. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a HJK Helsinki win with a probability of 59.45%. A draw had a probability of 22.2% and a win for Panevezys had a probability of 18.31%.

The most likely scoreline for a HJK Helsinki win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.63%) and 2-1 (9.89%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.57%), while for a Panevezys win it was 0-1 (5.66%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.6% likelihood.

Result
HJK HelsinkiDrawPanevezys
59.45% (-0.107 -0.11) 22.25% (0.040000000000003 0.04) 18.31% (0.07 0.07)
Both teams to score 51.2% (0.0040000000000049 0)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
53.04% (-0.061999999999998 -0.06)46.96% (0.062999999999995 0.06)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
30.8% (-0.056999999999999 -0.06)69.2% (0.060999999999993 0.06)
HJK Helsinki Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
84.58% (-0.054999999999993 -0.05)15.42% (0.058 0.06)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
55.76% (-0.10599999999999 -0.11)44.24% (0.109 0.11)
Panevezys Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
60.53% (0.042999999999999 0.04)39.46% (-0.042000000000002 -0.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
23.84% (0.040000000000003 0.04)76.16% (-0.037999999999997 -0.04)
Score Analysis
    HJK Helsinki 59.44%
    Panevezys 18.31%
    Draw 22.24%
HJK HelsinkiDrawPanevezys
1-0 @ 11.37% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
2-0 @ 10.63% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
2-1 @ 9.89% (-0.0020000000000007 -0)
3-0 @ 6.63% (-0.022 -0.02)
3-1 @ 6.16% (-0.013 -0.01)
4-0 @ 3.1% (-0.017 -0.02)
4-1 @ 2.88% (-0.012 -0.01)
3-2 @ 2.87% (-0.0029999999999997 -0)
4-2 @ 1.34% (-0.004 -0)
5-0 @ 1.16% (-0.008 -0.01)
5-1 @ 1.08% (-0.0070000000000001 -0.01)
Other @ 2.34%
Total : 59.44%
1-1 @ 10.57% (0.02 0.02)
0-0 @ 6.08% (0.016999999999999 0.02)
2-2 @ 4.6% (0.0050000000000008 0.01)
Other @ 0.99%
Total : 22.24%
0-1 @ 5.66% (0.021 0.02)
1-2 @ 4.92% (0.015 0.01)
0-2 @ 2.63% (0.013 0.01)
1-3 @ 1.52% (0.006 0.01)
2-3 @ 1.43% (0.0030000000000001 0)
Other @ 2.15%
Total : 18.31%

How you voted: HJK Helsinki vs Panevezys

HJK Helsinki
69.5%
Draw
13.6%
Panevezys
16.9%
59
Head to Head
Jul 9, 2024 4.30pm
First Qualifying Round 1st Leg
Panevezys
3-0
HJK Helsinki
Veliulis (17'), Gorobsov (65' pen.), Mbo (67')
Rasimavicius (57'), Dieng (58'), Mbo (88'), Gorobsov (90')
Dieng (71')

Kanellopoulos (55'), Lyons-Foster (90')
rhs 2.0
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