Colchester United make the trip to St James' Park to face Exeter City for the second leg of their League Two playoff semi-final holding a 1-0 advantage.
Cohen Bramall's late free kick in Thursday's opening fixture has left the Grecians facing an uphill task at their home ground.
Match preview
© Reuters
Winning two of their final three games before football was suspended due to the coronavirus pandemic ultimately led to Colchester squeezing into the playoffs against the odds.
However, despite beginning their two-legged tie with Exeter as the marginal underdogs, the U's now find themselves needing to avoid defeat in order to earn a spot at Wembley Stadium as they look to secure a return to the third tier after a four-year absence.
Although only holding a slender lead, Bramall's brilliant set piece has provided his team with the platform to defend their first-leg result on their travels.
Bramall, who failed to make a senior outing at Arsenal after his surprise transfer from non-league Hednesford Town in January 2017, had endured a relatively quiet campaign until the middle of February.
From his last four outings, however, the pacey left-back now has a goal and two assists to his name, and Colchester boss John McGreal will be hoping for more of the same on Monday.
As far as Exeter are concerned, they would have been disappointed with the level of their performance in Essex after ending the season just short of the automatic promotion places.
However, Matt Taylor will be optimistic that his team can overturn the narrow deficit in familiar settings, despite the game being held without a crowd.
Although Taylor was quick to find the positives from the display, star duo Randall Williams and Ryan Bowman failed to make any sort of an impact in the final third.
With Exeter having now failed to win in five matches, the pair, who have 18 goals and 14 assists between them this season, have extra responsibility on their shoulders to respond in the second leg.
Exeter City League Two form: WLDDLL
Colchester United League Two form: LLWLWW
Team News
© Reuters
Exeter boss Taylor suggested on Thursday that Lee Martin would miss the second leg after being forced off with a calf injury.
There are also doubts over Nicky Law, Dean Moxey and Jack Sparkes, although Taylor is hopeful that Nicky Ajose will be available to return to the squad.
Barring any late fitness issues, Colchester manager McGreal could opt to retain the same starting lineup.
Callum Harriott may be in contention after missing out on Thursday due to what McGreal described as "a tight quad".
Exeter City possible starting lineup:
Ward; Sweeney, Martin, Moxey; Williams, Taylor, Atangana, Law, Sparkles; Ajose, Bowman
Colchester United possible starting lineup:
Gerken; Jackson, Eastman, Prosser, Bramall; Poku, Pell, Stevenson, Senior; Nouble, Norris
We say: Exeter City 2-2 Colchester United
Given their need to show more attacking intent, we expect Exeter to rally and and seize the early initiative. However, with an advantage to maintain, we are backing the visitors to earn the draw which will be enough to secure their spot at Wembley.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Exeter City win with a probability of 43.28%. A win for Colchester United had a probability of 29.37% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Exeter City win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.64%) and 2-0 (8.2%). The likeliest Colchester United win was 0-1 (9.62%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.88%).
