Copa Libertadores

Copa Libertadores | Third Round | 2nd Leg

Mar 15, 2024 at 12.30am UK

Estadio Gran Parque Central

Nacional
2 - 1
Always Ready

(agg: -)

Lozano (7'), Antoni (90+3')
Ginella (19'), Polenta (42'), Gonzalez (90'), Santander (90')
Polenta (86')

FT(HT: 1-1)

Rodriguez (45+3')
Suarez (60'), Medina (68'), Caicedo (90'), Terrazas (90')

Nacional win 5-4 on penalties

Data Analysis

Lineups

Coverage of the Copa Libertadores Third Round clash between Nacional and Always Ready.

Form, Standings, Stats

Nacional

All competitions

Copa Libertadores

Last Game: Defensor 3-3 Nacional
Sunday, March 10 at 10.30pm in Uruguayan Primera Division

Goals
for

Always Ready

All competitions

Copa Libertadores

Last Game: Always Ready 1-0 Nacional
Friday, March 8 at 12.30am in Copa Libertadores

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 53.24%. A draw had a probability of 23.9% and a win for Always Ready had a probability of 22.86%.

The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.73%) and 2-0 (9.39%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.35%), while for an Always Ready win it was 0-1 (6.63%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Nacional would win this match.

Result
Nacional	Draw	Always Ready
53.24% ( -0.12)	23.9% ( -0.05)	22.86% ( 0.16)

Both teams to score 52.89% (

0.34)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

51.84% (

0.36)

48.16% (

-0.36)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

29.68% (

0.33)

70.32% (

-0.33)

Nacional Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

81.97% (

0.09)

18.03% (

-0.09)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

51.08% (

0.15)

48.92% (

-0.15)

Always Ready Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

64.52% (

0.35)

35.48% (

-0.35)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

27.76% (

0.36)

72.24% (

-0.36)

Score Analysis

Nacional 53.23%

Always Ready 22.86%

Draw 23.9%

Nacional	Draw	Always Ready
1-0 @ 10.95% ( -0.14) 2-1 @ 9.73% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 9.39% ( -0.08) 3-1 @ 5.55% ( 0.02) 3-0 @ 5.36% ( -0.03) 3-2 @ 2.88% ( 0.04) 4-1 @ 2.38% ( 0.02) 4-0 @ 2.3% ( -0.01) 4-2 @ 1.23% ( 0.02) Other @ 3.46% Total : 53.23%	1-1 @ 11.35% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 6.4% ( -0.09) 2-2 @ 5.04% ( 0.05) 3-3 @ 0.99% ( 0.02) Other @ 0.12% Total : 23.9%	0-1 @ 6.63% ( -0.03) 1-2 @ 5.88% ( 0.04) 0-2 @ 3.43% ( 0.02) 1-3 @ 2.03% ( 0.03) 2-3 @ 1.74% ( 0.03) 0-3 @ 1.19% ( 0.02) Other @ 1.95% Total : 22.86%