Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gremio win with a probability of 48.69%. A win for Aragua had a probability of 29.17% and a draw had a probability of 22.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gremio win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.61%) and 2-0 (6.35%). The likeliest Aragua win was 1-2 (6.94%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.58%). The actual scoreline of 8-0 was predicted with a 0% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Gremio would win this match.