Copa Libertadores | Third Round
Apr 9, 2021 at 11.15pm UK
Estadio Municipal Ruminahui
Independiente2 - 1Gremio
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Independiente del Valle win with a probability of 40.05%. A win for Gremio had a probability of 34.83% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Independiente del Valle win was 1-0 with a probability of 8.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.68%) and 2-0 (6.41%). The likeliest Gremio win was 0-1 (8.04%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.81%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Independiente del Valle would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Independiente del Valle | Draw | Gremio |
| 40.05% | 25.11% | 34.83% |
| Both teams to score 57.13% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
