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[monks data]
Derby logo
Championship | Gameweek 37
Mar 16, 2021 at 7pm UK
Pride Park Stadium
Brentford logo

Derby
2 - 2
Brentford

Gregory (47'), Sibley (87')
FT(HT: 0-2)
Toney (8' pen.), Canos (23')

Preview: Derby County vs. Brentford - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Championship clash between Derby County and Brentford, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Brentford head into their Championship fixture at Derby County looking for the victory which could take them back into the top two of the standings.

Meanwhile, on the back of a five-match winless streak, the Rams find themselves back in a battle to avoid relegation to League One.


Match preview

Ivan Toney celebrates scoring for Brentford against Blackburn Rovers in the Championship on March 12, 2021© Reuters

While having over a week to stew over the 1-0 defeat at Norwich City was less than ideal, Brentford boss Thomas Frank would have been satisfied for the unforeseen respite after a busy seven months.

That break undoubtedly helped the Bees on Friday evening as they edged out Blackburn Rovers, opponents who were playing their third game in less than a week.

A fresher side were able to keep Brentford in contention for automatic promotion at a time when Watford and Swansea City look capable of winning the majority of their remaining matches.

Ivan Toney's winner at Ewood Park came from the penalty spot, but Frank will be delighted that his backline managed to keep a clean sheet for just the second time in 13 fixtures.

Derby County's manager Wayne Rooney before the match on March 6, 2021© Reuters

At a time when Brentford are bidding to return to the top two, Derby and Wayne Rooney are finding it increasingly difficult to move away from the bottom three.

Although things once appeared rosy with the England legend in charge, the honeymoon period has now been declared over with just two points coming from five fixtures.

Despite keeping things relatively tight in defence, the East Midlands side have now failed to score in their last four matches, their only goal in five coming in the latter stages of the derby with Nottingham Forest.

Rooney will recognise that their barren spell in the final third will only encourage Rotherham United, who trail by seven points with four matches in hand.

While Derby's current position is currently more favourable than that of the Millers, failure to get more points on the board before the international break will leave Rooney with much to ponder.

Derby County Championship form:
  • W
  • D
  • L
  • L
  • D
  • L

Brentford Championship form:
  • L
  • L
  • W
  • W
  • L
  • W


Team News

Brentford's Saman Ghoddos in action with Stoke's Tommy Smith on February 27, 2021© Reuters

Frank could hand a start to Saman Ghoddos, who dropped out of the team to accommodate the return of Christian Norgaard against Blackburn.

Sergi Canos may also get the nod over Tariqe Fosu-Henry, but Pontus Jansson and Rico Henry remain out of contention.

Rooney must decide to stick with the 3-4-3 formation which was used during Derby's defeat against Millwall on Saturday.

While mass changes are unlikely to be made, Andre Wisdom, Max Bird and Louie Sibley could all be recalled.

Derby County possible starting lineup:
Roos; Wisdom, Edmundson, Clarke, Forsyth, Bird, Shinnie; Waghorn, Sibley, Jozwiak; Kazim-Richards

Brentford possible starting lineup:
Raya; Dalsgaard, Reid, Pinnock, Bech Sorensen; Jensen, Norgaard, Janelt; Mbeumo, Toney, Canos


SM words green background

We say: Derby County 0-2 Brentford

Facing the division's best attack is difficult at the best of times, but Derby's task has been made tougher due to their poor form in front of goal. With that in mind, we are backing the visitors to control the contest at Pride Park, eventually prevailing in comfortable fashion.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting a double chance bet on a home win or an away win in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Home/Away:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Brentford win with a probability of 52.17%. A draw had a probability of 27% and a win for Derby County had a probability of 20.84%.

The most likely scoreline for a Brentford win was 0-1 with a probability of 15.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.05%) and 1-2 (8.8%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.27%), while for a Derby County win it was 1-0 (8.56%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood.


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Game History

How you voted: Derby vs Brentford

Derby County
21.2%
Draw
8.2%
Brentford
70.6%
170
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Ivan Toney celebrates scoring for Brentford against Blackburn Rovers in the Championship on March 12, 2021
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