Stoke City play host to Derby County on Saturday afternoon realistically requiring maximum points to remain in contention for the Championship playoffs.
Derby make the trip to the bet365 Stadium on the back of a 2-2 draw with Brentford, a result which has moved the Rams eight points clear of the drop zone.
Match preview
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On the back of six matches without a win, Wayne Rooney will be less than satisfied with how Derby have performed since the beginning of the month.
Nevertheless, their second-half showing against Brentford was one of their best of the campaign, a timely response to being outplayed during the opening 45 minutes.
With Rotherham eight points behind with four matches remaining, the Rams cannot afford to be complacent, but the fear of being overhauled by the Millers may prove beneficial in the long run.
Derby have started to make a habit of performing better in games where they are underdogs, a trait which Rooney will want to eradicate as soon as possible.
Despite these two clubs currently being separated by eight positions in the standings, there is a feeling that the East Midlands outfit should be regarded as the favourites to topple their hosts.
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Stoke manager Michael O'Neill will be encouraged with the goalless draw at Cardiff City in midweek, taking the club's recent tally to four points from three matches.
Nevertheless, the Potters have reached a point in their campaign where only wins will do if they want to gatecrash the playoffs over the next seven weeks.
On a positive note, their home form has remained strong with three victories and a draw being recorded from their last five fixtures at the bet365 Stadium.
Just four goals have been scored in six outings, a run which has coincided with Steven Fletcher going five games without finding the back of the net.
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Team News
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Despite claiming a point in South Wales, Stoke boss O'Neill will be tempted to name a more attack-minded side at the weekend.
Jack Clarke, Rabbi Matondo and Sam Vokes are all in contention to feature in the final third, potentially at the expense of Jordan Thompson and Fletcher.
Rooney is unable to name the same eleven players which started against Brentford due to Lee Gregory being unable to face his parent club.
Max Bird, Jason Knight and Louie Sibley are competing for two places in the side, leaving Tom Lawrence and Patrick Roberts to remain among the replacements.
Stoke City possible starting lineup:
Davies; Chester, Souttar, Batth; Smith, Allen, Mikel, Norrington-Davies; Powell, Clarke; Vokes
Derby County possible starting lineup:
Roos; Wisdom, Mengi, Clarke; Byrne, Shinnie, Knight, Buchanan; Jozwiak, Kazim-Richards, Sibley
We say: Stoke City 1-1 Derby County
While the Rams will be on a high after their comeback against Brentford, a meeting with Stoke represents a different test. Goals will likely be few and far between in the Potteries and these two sides could cancel each other out over the 90 minutes.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stoke City win with a probability of 40.15%. A win for Derby County had a probability of 30.74% and a draw had a probability of 29.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Stoke City win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.91%) and 2-1 (7.89%). The likeliest Derby County win was 0-1 (11.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.33%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Stoke City in this match.
